The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is entering a decisive phase, and the latest international window has clarified which nations are edging closer to the expanded 48-team tournament. Here are data-driven predictions for the most intriguing qualifying zones.
Europe – UEFA Groups
Group A: France 19 pts, Netherlands 15 pts. Les Bleus need one win from their last three to clinch top spot; expect them to secure it at home to Greece in October.
Group C: England (20 pts) and Italy (16 pts) will finish 1-2, but the Azzurri’s remaining trip to Ukraine could be tricky. A draw in Wroclaw keeps Italy on track, yet leaves the door ajar for Ukraine to steal the play-off place on goal difference.
Surprise package: Albania remain unbeaten through six matches in Group J; our model gives them a 62 % chance of finishing above Czechia and claiming an automatic berth.
South America – CONMEBOL
After 12 rounds Argentina (28 pts) and Brazil (24 pts) are safe bets. Uruguay (19 pts) and Colombia (18 pts) occupy the remaining automatic slots, but Ecuador (16 pts, -3 adjustment) are forecast to leapfrog Colombia on the final day thanks to a kinder fixture list (home to Bolivia and away to already-relegated Peru). Paraguay, currently seventh, are tipped to grab the inter-confederation play-off spot with 25 projected points.
Africa – CAF Groups
Morocco (CGroup F) and Senegal (Group I) have 100 % qualification probabilities per Elo-weighted simulations. Watch Nigeria in Group C: a crunch away match to South Africa in November will decide the section. Our Poisson-based forecast gives the Super Eagles a 54 % edge. Algeria, humbled in 2022, are projected to top Group G over Guinea on head-to-head goals scored.
Asia – AFC Final Round
Japan (15 pts) will top Group B; their attacking depth (2.4 xG per match) is unmatched. Group A is tighter: Iran (13 pts) and Uzbekistan (12 pts) will collide in Tehran on Match-day 9; the hosts are 61 % favorites, yet a draw effectively books both sides. Qatar, defending Asian champions, are predicted to finish fourth and enter the Asian play-off, where they will oust Jordan before falling to South America’s fifth in the intercontinental match.
North America – CONCACAF Final Octagonal
The United States (2.04 points per game) and Mexico (1.96) remain on pace, but Panama (1.71) have the momentum: five wins in their last six. Canada’s injury crisis (Davies out 8-10 weeks) drops them to the play-off place at 1.54 PPG. Model output: USA 1st, Mexico 2nd, Panama 3rd, Canada 4th (inter-confederation play-off vs. OFC winner).
Oceania – OFC
New Zealand are 84 % likely to win the single-leg final in March versus New Caledonia, setting up a transcontinental clash with the CONCACAF fourth-place team. Expect a tight two-legged affair decided by a late Kiwi set-piece.
Golden Boot Watch
In Europe, Romelu Lukaku has 10 goals with a 0.98 xG/shot average; he is projected to finish with 14, topping the scoring chart. In South America, Uruguay’s Darwin Núñez is on pace for 13 qualifiers’ strikes, eclipsing Lautaro Martínez.
Bottom Line
Using Elo ratings, goal-based simulations (10 000 runs) and current squad health, the 32 projected automatic qualifiers for 2026 are:
Europe: France, England, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland, Serbia, Albania, Austria, Poland, Ukraine.
South America: Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador.
Africa: Morocco, Senegal, Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Ghana.
Asia: Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Korea.
North America: USA, Mexico, Panama.
The remaining 16 slots will be decided via play-offs, but early indicators suggest Canada, Colombia, Qatar and New Zealand are best positioned to complete the expanded field.
Expect shocks, stoppage-time drama and the usual qualifier chaos, yet the numbers say the favorites are already pulling away.
