Verona’s hopes of pulling further clear of the relegation zone face a stiff exam on Sunday evening when high-flying Fiorentina arrive at the Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi. Here is our data-driven preview, predicted XIs and score projection for Verona vs Fiorentina.
Kick-off: Sunday, 18:00 CET
Referee: Luca Pairetto
Weather: Partly cloudy, 14 °C, light rain expected in the second half
1. Current Form
Verona (LLDWL) – 16th, 27 pts
Igor Tudor’s side edged Salernitana 1-0 last month but have since shipped six goals in back-to-back defeats to Atalanta and Roma. Only Cremonese (19) have scored fewer home goals than Verona’s 12.
Fiorentina (WWWDL) – 5th, 50 pts
Vincenzo Italiano’s men kept successive clean sheets against Lecce and Sampdoria before Thursday’s 2-1 Europa Conference League win over Lech Poznań. Nicolás González and Giacomo Bonaventura are enjoying career-best attacking numbers.
2. Team News
Verona
OUT: Veloso (suspension), Hrustic (ankle)
Doubtful: Dawidowicz (hamstring)
Probable XI (3-4-2-1): Montipò; Magnani, Gunter, Ceccherini; Depaoli, Tameze, Hongla, Doig; Lazovic, Ngonge; Djuric.
Fiorentina
OUT: Castrovilli (ACL), Saponara (calf)
Doubts: Igor (flu)
Italiano may rotate after Thursday: Probable XI (4-2-3-1): Terracciano; Dodo, Martinez-Quarta, Milenkovic, Biraghi; Amrabat, Duncan; Gonzalez, Barak, Kouame; Jovic.
3. Tactical Match-up
Verona’s man-oriented pressing created 149 high regains this term (7th in Serie A) but that aggression leaves space between their wing-backs and outside centre-backs—exactly the channel Fiorentina love to attack. Look for Biraghi under-lapping and releasing Gonzalez 1 v 1 against Doig. On the reverse, Verona’s set-piece threat (10 goals, league average 8) offers hope; Fiorentina concede 0.21 xG per game from corners, 6th worst.
4. Key Stats
– Fiorentina are unbeaten in the last 7 H2H meetings (W4 D3), scoring 2+ in six of them.
– Verona have failed to score in 5 of their last 8 league matches.
-Fiorentina’s expected goals difference in away fixtures (+0.46 per 90) ranks 4th; Verona’s home xGD (-0.42) is 17th.
5. Betting Angles (odds via Bet365)
Match odds: Verona 4.00 | Draw 3.40 | Fiorentina 1.95
Both Teams to Score – NO: 1.83
Fiorentina win to nil: 3.25
Player prop: Luka Jovic 2+ shots on target @ 2.62
6. Prediction Model
Using last-10-match xG, injuries and travel fatigue, our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 iterations. Upshot:
Fiorentina win 52 % | Draw 27 % | Verona win 21 %
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 Fiorentina (projected 19 % probability)
Final Verdict
Verona’s urgency can keep it tight for 60 minutes, but Fiorentina’s superior rotational depth and flank quality should tell. Back La Viola to win without conceding and tighten their grip on a European berth.
Betting tip: Fiorentina win to nil @ 3.25 (1 unit, stake what you can afford to lose)
Fantasy captain: Gonzalez (Fiorentina)
