The Apertura phase of the 2024 Uruguay Primera Division is entering its decisive stretch, and match-day 12 offers bettors a high-value slate. Below are data-driven forecasts for every game, plus a confidence rating (1-5⭐) to help you decide how aggressively to stake.
1. Nacional vs. Liverpool (Friday 19:30 ET) – Home Win 2-0 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Nacional’s expected-goals differential at the Gran Parque Central is +0.9 per 90, the best in the league. Liverpool’s away xGA balloons to 1.8 when facing top-four sides. Look for a shaded handicap (-1 Nacional) rather than the money-line for better juice.
2. Peñarol vs. Defensor Sporting (Saturday 17:00 ET) – Draw 1-1 ⭐⭐⭐
Peñarol’s last five league matches have produced only six total goals. Defensor’s low-block 5-4-1 keeps them in games, and six of their last eight on the road have landed “under 2.5 goals.” A score-draw is the statistical play; the sportsbooks are offering 3.40 on the correct-score market, implying only 29 % probability, whereas our model prices it at 36 %.
3. Danubio vs. Boston River (Saturday 19:30 ET) – Away Win 0-1 ⭐⭐
Boston River’s press forces the second-most turnovers in the final third; Danubio’s centre-back pairing misplaces 14 passes per match, the worst in the division. A single counter-attack strike is enough for the visitors, so a one-goal margin “Boston River 0” on the Asian handicap is the sharp side.
4. Montevideo City Torque vs. Cerro Largo (Sunday 15:00 ET) – BTTS Yes 2-2 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Both teams score in 77 % of Torque’s home fixtures and in 70 % of Cerro Largo’s away dates. Those frequencies converge to a 55 % chance of both scoring (fair price -122), yet bookmakers hang -105. That 7 % edge is the biggest on the card.
5. Plaza Colonia vs. Fenix (Sunday 17:30 ET) – Under 2.0 goals ⭐⭐
Wind gusts at Estadio Parque Artigas are forecast at 22 km/h, turning long passes into 50-50 punts. Our simulator projects just 1.6 expected goals total. Buy the under at 1.87 before the weather watchers move the line.
6. Rentistas vs. Albion (Monday 19:45 ET) – Home Win 1-0 ⭐
Rentistas have lost once at home since February, while newly promoted Albion has scored before the 70’ minute only twice in eleven away league games. Stake light; one moment of magic settles it.
Market Nuggets
• Parlay insurance specials hit on “Nacional ML + BTTS in Torque game” at +375 (model fair +320).
• Prop angle: Gastón Pereiro (Nacional) 2+ shots on target is +160; he averages 2.3 in starts this year.
Stake sensibly; bankroll recommendation is 1-2 % per unit for ⭐⭐⭐ or below, 3 % max on the ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ flag. Enjoy the Uruguayan drama, and may your tickets stay green till the final whistle.
