After the draw placed Europe’s 55 nations into ten groups, the road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup already feels like a high-stakes chess match. Here’s how the continent’s most balanced qualifying campaign in years is likely to unfold.
Group A: Spain and Scotland will pull away early. Luis de la Fuente’s possession-based rebuild can paper over defensive gaps, while Steve Clarke’s street-wise squad still owns the best set-piece efficiency in Pot 2. Norway’s reliance on a single generational talent leaves them vulnerable; expect Erling Haaland to collect goals but not enough head-to-head points.
Group B: Netherlands should finish top by five points, yet the intrigue is second place. Greece’s revival under Gus Poyet is built on three-man midfields and dead-ball precision, trumping a transitional Republic of Ireland. Gibraltar finish pointless.
Group C: Italy’s draw is a blessing. Luciano Spalletti’s 4-3-3 solves previous full-back issues, and the depth of Chiesa-Raspadori-Zirkzee is too much for modest neighbours. Ukraine’s fixture congestion owing to playoff duties elsewhere and England’s Nations League run hurts them; they end up in the playoffs.
Group D: The “group of life” lacks a powerhouse but overflows with volatility. Croatia’s midfield is aging, but replacing Lovren with Gvardiol-Pongracic finally balances the back line. Türkiye’s new wave (Yıldız, Aktürkoğlu) edges past Wales on goal difference, while Armenia surprise everyone with a draw in Cardiff.
Group E: Poland will top the section only because the rest misfire. Albania’s aggressive press under Sylvinho steals second from an over-reliant Czech Republic. Moldova continue their habit of narrow 1-0 defeats.
Group F: Belgium’s transitional pain is over; Domenico Tedesco’s 3-4-2-1 lets De Bruyne roam between the lines. Austria’s Marko Arnautovic-less attack finally clicks with young Grillitsch and Baumgartner pulling strings. Sweden fade amid squad overhaul, and Azerbaijan profit on counters to flirt with third.
Group G: Hungary’s spine (Szalai-Gulasci-Szoboszlai) remains intact and gives them just enough to pip Serbia. Montenegro’s attacking options are underrated, yet they can’t defend set pieces and fall short again.
Group H: Denmark sail through, unbeaten. Slovenia’s Benjamin Šeško and Adam Gnezda Cerin provide late-game electricity, sending them second ahead of a Finland side that cannot replace Pukki’s movement. Northern Ireland rebuild in public.
Group I: Switzerland’s conveyor belt of utility players guarantees consistency, while Israel’s front four of Solomon, Weissman, Liel Abada and Manor Solomon terrify lower seeds. Kosovo push hard but draw too many games to qualify automatically.
Group J: The closest call of all. Portugal’s new defensive block under Roberto Martinez looks vulnerable to speed, but the forward depth is absurd. Slovakia’s pressing traps and Ondrej Duda’s set-piece mastery snag second. Iceland’s golden era is over, Bosnia’s dressing-room politics implode, and Luxembourg finish with a historic 12 points yet still miss out.
Playoff Picture: Ukraine, Czech Republic, Norway and Slovenia grab the final tickets via UEFA Nations League rankings, with Ukraine riding a Mudryk-inspired semi-final run to the last available World Cup seat.
Bold call? Expect at least one seeded giant to miss out—France’s brutal Nations League schedule and Kylian Mbappé’s foot injury in March leaves them fatigued, but their squad depth still eclipses every group rival. Translation: Europe will send 13 deserved contenders to North America, and the qualifiers’ drama will start the moment the first whistle blows in March, not next winter.
