The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup has begun in Europe, and UEFA’s marathon qualifying format promises more twists than ever. With 16 direct spots up for grabs—plus a potential extra via the playoffs—every group is a mini-league of nightmares for the continent’s giants. Here’s how the narrative is likely to unfold.
Group A: Spain and Scotland renew last cycle’s rivalry, but a younger La Roja—spearheaded by Pedri and Lamine Yamal—has too much pace for Scotland’s high-line bravery. Steve Clarke’s side settles for the playoff route again. Spain wins the group with two games to spare.
Group B: France lost only once in 2022 qualifying and won’t slip here. The subplot is Greece vs. Republic of Ireland for second. Greece’s emerging back three (Mavropanos, Koulierakis, Retsos) edges the physical battle, leaving the Irish to chase another playoff miracle.
Group C: England’s “Christmas tree” with Jude Bellingham as the free 10 behind Watkins and Saka yields 28 goals in eight games. Italy rebuilds under Spalletti; they finish second but look ominous for the playoffs. Ukraine’s away fixtures remain logistical chess due to conflict constraints, hampering their top-two push.
Group D: Croatia’s veterans Modrić and Perišić refuse to fade, yet the difference-maker is 21-year-old winger Martin Baturina, who torments full-backs. Wales’ pivot of Ampadu and Jordan James matures, but goal shortage persists. Turkey’s new 3-4-2-1 gives them just enough firepower to nick second ahead of Wales on head-to-head.
Group E: Czechia catch a generational wave: Hložek, Adam Karabec and 17-year-old striker Vasil Kušej. Their 3-3-4 shape frightens Poland, whose Robert Lewandowski-led attack flat-lines when counters dry up. Alvarez-less Poland crash into the playoffs; Czechia wins the group.
Group F: Portugal’s depth is cartoonish. Even without Ronaldo, Leão and João Félix rotate seamlessly. Slovakia’s 5-4-1 earns gritty points, but Iceland’s rebuild lags as their golden cohort finally retires. Portugal 10-for-10.
Group G: Hungary’s Marco Rossi keeps the 3-5-2 humming, while Serbia’s reliance on Mitrović becomes predictable. The decisive clash in Belgrade finishes 2-1 to the Magyates, powered by Dominik Szoboszlai’s late free-kick. Serbia slumps to playoff duty.
Group H: Denmark returns to a four-man back line, freeing up Rasmus Højlund to run channels. Finland’s pressing system frustrates but lacks finish; Slovenia’s Benjamin Šeško bags nine goals yet sees midfield over-run. Denmark cruises, Slovenia grabs a playoff seed.
Group I: Switzerland’s “B-team experiment” actually fortifies depth. Breel Embolo returns fit, and Zeki Amdouni explodes for 10 qualifying goals. Israel’s brisk counters yield goals but also errors; Romania’s defensive block cannot quite compensate for blunt strikers. Switzerland wins, Israel sneaks second.
Group J: Belgium’s “2.0 generation” (De Ketelaere, Bakayoko, Doku) topples an aging Austria. Compact 4-2-3-1 under Domenico Tedesco clicks. Sweden rebuilds without Zlatan and misses out on goal difference after a last-day draw in Azerbaijan.
Playoff Picture: Italy, Serbia, Poland, Wales, Turkey, Greece, Slovenia, and either Scotland or Ukraine form a stacked bracket. A refashioned Italy sweeps through, joined by Serbia’s aerial barrage and Luka Modrić’s last dance Croatia. Expect at least one upset: Slovenia’s young core stuns a fatigued Poland.
Dark Horses: Keep an eye on Czechia and Hungary. Both ride tactical clarity and fearless youth. If drawn into favorable playoff paths, a quarter-final run in North America is not fantasy.
Final Predictions: Spain, France, England, Croatia, Czechia, Portugal, Hungary, Denmark, Switzerland, Belgium, Germany (as hosts), Netherlands, Italy (via playoff), Serbia (via playoff), Croatia (via playoff), and Slovenia (via playoff) will represent UEFA in 2026. The age of emerging nations has arrived—yet Europe’s traditional royalty still writes the last chapters.
