The third season of the UEFA Europa Conference League has reached the knockout phase, and the bracket is wide open. With no single super-club left to dominate, analytics models now give seven teams a realistic 8-12 % chance of lifting the trophy in Warsaw on 28 May. Below are data-driven predictions, breakout players to watch, and a round-by-round roadmap to the final.
1. Title Probabilities (FiveThirty8 xG model, 10 000 simulations)
– Aston Villa: 18 %
– Fiorentina: 15 %
– LOSC Lille: 12 %
– Fenerbahçe: 11 %
– Real Betis: 9 %
– Club Brugge: 8 %
– Viktoria Plzeň: 7 %
– Legia Warszawa: 6 %
– Field (remaining 9 clubs): 14 %
2. Dark-Horse Watch
Legia Warszawa are unbeaten at the Polish Army Stadium in 17 European games. With the final on home soil, their morale upside is undervalued by pure Elo ratings. Meanwhile, Viktoria Plzeň’s 2.1 xG differential per 90 under new coach Michal Bílek is the best in the competition since December.
3. Key Match-up Analytics
Pressing intensity (PPDA) explains 42 % of goal difference in the group stage. High-press sides (Villa 8.1, Lille 8.4, Betis 8.5) project to outperform mid-block opponents even away from home. Conversely, deep-block travelers such as Partizan (PPDA 13.2) are 1.8× more likely to concede late goals.
4. Knockout Path Simulation
Round of 16 (March)
– Villa vs. Olympiacos: 71 % advancement for Villa; Watkins & Diaby combine for 0.67 xG per match.
– Fiorentina vs. Maccabi Haifa: 79 % for Italians; Beltrán-Bonaventura connection creates 3.4 key passes per 90.
Quarter-finals (April)
Model expects at least one upset: Club Brugge dump out Betis 55 % of the time thanks to 88 % aerial success at set pieces.
Semi-finals (May)
Likely Final-Four: Villa, Fiorentina, Lille, Legia. In this scenario, Villa’s superior squad depth (21 players with >300 top-flight minutes) edges Lille 58 %, while Fiorentina’s cup experience outweighs Legia’s home advantage 61 %.
5. Final Prediction
Aston Villa vs. Fiorentina in Warsaw ends 2-1 after extra time, with John McGinn’s 108’ strike completing Emery’s European set: winner of Europa League (Sevilla), Europa Conference League (Villa), and Europa League again (Villareal).
Betting Angle
– Top value futures: Plzeň to reach semi-final @ 17.0, Legia to qualify from R16 @ 4.2.
– Player prop: Moussa Diaby anytime assist in QF onward @ 3.5 (led competition with 0.34 assists/90).
Stay locked in; the Conference League has already produced two different champions, and the third coronation is shaping up to be the most unpredictable yet.
