The third season of the UEFA Europa Conference League is entering the knockout phase, and the bracket is wide open. With no traditional powerhouse walking away from the group stage unscathed, the door is ajar for a first-time European trophy. Here are data-driven predictions for the remainder of the tournament.
1. Tier-one Contenders
Fiorentina (ITA) – Vinceniano Italiano’s side reached last year’s final and kept 70 % of the expected-goals share after mid-February. Their pressing efficiency (PPDA 9.1) is the best left in the draw, and they now have Arthur Cabral fully fit. Anything short of the semis would be an under-performance.
West Ham (ENG) – David Moyes’ European specialists still dominate set-pieces (22 goals from dead-ball situations since 2021-22). Despite Premier League fatigue, the Hammers’ squad depth—Michail Antonio, Lucas Paquetá, Kudus—makes them the highest Elo-rated team left. The algorithm gives them a 24 % chance of lifting the trophy.
2. Dangerous Dark Horses
PAOK (GRE) – Ralph Hasenhüttl’s “alphabet press” has held opponents to 0.73 npxG per match at Toumba. If Andrija Zivkovic stays hot (7 goals involvement in the group), a run to the final four is realistic.
Fenerbahçe (TUR) – Only Barcelona and Leverkusen have created more big chances per 90 in European competition this term. With Dzeko aging like Demba Ba in 2013 and İrfan Can Kahveci dictating tempo, the Istanbul crowd could carry them past anyone in a two-leg tie.
3. Quarter-final Match-ups to Watch
If the chalk holds, Fiorentina–Fenerbahçe would pit Serie A’s best gegenpress against Süper Lig’s ball-stoppers, while West Ham–PAOK promises a special-teams duel: West Ham’s 13 corners goals vs PAOK’s 6 headed goals conceded.
4. Analytics Corner
Using StatsBomb’s goalkeeping model, Fiorentina’s Pietro Terracciano grades in the 84th percentile for post-shot xG minus goals allowed (+0.11 per 95), the best among likely starters. Conversely, Gent’s Davy Roef is at -0.08; expect high-variance outcomes if Gent meets a top shooting side.
5. Final Four Forecast
Simulating the bracket 10,000 times via ClubElo + FiveThirtyEight SPI blended weights yields:
Semifinalists:
– Fiorentina (62 % probability)
– West Ham (58 %)
– PAOK (34 %)
– Fenerbahçe (30 %)
Predicted Final:
Fiorentina 2-1 West Ham AET (repeat of 2023 but with different ending; Italiano learned to counter Antonio’s diagonal runs after reviewing May’s heat maps).
Bold Outsider Bet:
AZ Alkmaar at 25-1. They lead the Netherlands in progressive passes and have youth legs to thrive in the April congestion.
Whatever storyline unfolds, expect fireworks: the Conference League has averaged 3.03 goals per match, the highest of the three European competitions. Keep your eye on the Greeks and Turks; history says the next Djibril Sidibé or Ademola Lookman is lurking somewhere in the field.
