The 2023-24 Turkey Super Lig enters its penultimate weekend with every point carrying title, European, or survival weight. Below are data-driven picks for the five fixtures that will shape the final table.
1. Galatasaray vs. Ankaragücü – Saturday 19:00 local
Prediction: Galatasaray 3-0
Gala need six points from six to guarantee back-to-back championships. Ankaragücü have shipped 11 goals in four away games since the March break; expect Mauro Icardi to add to his 25-goal tally before the 60-minute mark.
2. Fenerbahçe vs. Kayserispor – Sunday 19:00
Prediction: Fenerbahçe 4-1
Kayserispor’s relegation safety was sealed last week, and their expected-goals allowed on the road (1.91 per 90) is the league’s worst. With Dzeko rested mid-week, the Bosnian hits a brace and edges one step closer to the Golden Boot.
3. Besiktas at Sivasspor – Saturday 16:00
Prediction: 1-1
Besiktas must win to keep Europa League hopes alive, yet Sivas have lost only once at home in 2024. A stingy 4-4-2 block from the hosts frustrates the Black Eagles, leaving them dependent on other results.
4. Basaksehir vs. Adana Demirspor – Monday 20:00
Prediction: Basaksehir 2-1
Basaksehir’s four-game winning streak coincides with a return to the 3-4-1-2 that took them to the 2020 title. Adana’s top scorer M’Baye Niang is suspended; without his 17 goals, the away side fall short despite controlling possession.
5. Rizespor vs. Pendikspor – Sunday 13:30
Prediction: Rizespor 2-0
Pendikspor are yet to earn a point away from Istanbul in 2024 (0-1-7). Rizespor’s dual threat of Musa Çağıran set-pieces and Dal Varešanović counters exposes a travel-sick back line, virtually confirming Pendik’s drop.
Season-defining subplot
If Galatasaray win Saturday, the Sunday pressure swings to Fenerbahçe, who must respond or concede the crown on goal difference. Meanwhile, a Besiktas slip opens the door for Trabzonspor to steal fourth place with a win at Konyaspor. At the bottom, anything less than victory for Pendikspor and Istanbulspor (away to Alanyaspor) mathematically condemns both to the 1. Lig.
Betting angle
Combining Galatasaray -1.5 AH, Fenerbahçe over 2.5 team goals, and Basaksehir money-line creates a +550 same-game parlay with 62 % implied probability per model simulations.
Whatever your stake, expect fireworks—this Turkish finale rarely finishes without drama.
