With the 2024–25 Swiss Super League season kicking off in late July, the usual suspects—Young Boys, Basel, and Servette—are again tipped for the podium, but a deeper dive into summer transfers, pre-season analytics, and emerging talents suggests the race could be tighter than ever. Here is a data-driven forecast of how the ten-team table is likely to finish.
1. Young Boys Bern – Champions Again
Wilfried Kambwala’s loan arrival from Manchester United shores up a back line that conceded just 29 goals last year. Combined with Cedric Itten’s 17-goal haul and the league’s best expected-goals (xG) differential (+31.4), YB have the depth to balance Champions League qualifiers with domestic duties. Projection: 1st, 79 points.
2. Servette Geneva – The Quiet Contender
Coach René Weiler’s side quietly posted the second-best away record in 2023–24. Retaining midfield metronome Dereck Kutesa and adding rapid winger Enzo Crivelli on a free gives Servette the symmetry to press higher. Their underlying numbers (3.2 xG per 90 from set pieces alone) make them the most likely to exploit Young Boys’ occasional high-line risk. Projection: 2nd, 70 points.
3. Basel – Transitional but Talented
The RotBlau are pivoting toward youth: 18-year-old striker Bradley Fink scored seven preseason goals, while new sporting director David Degen raided the Bundesliga for dual-national full-backs. An analytics model that weights minutes played by U-23 talent rates Basel’s squad age at 24.1 years—lowest since 2010. Growing pains cost them in autumn, but a spring surge should secure Conference League football. Projection: 3rd, 64 points.
4. St. Gallen – xG Overachievers Regress
St. Gallen bagged 63 points despite a negative xG difference (-2.8). That luck flips: goalkeeper Lawrence Ati-Zigi’s departure to France leaves a 6.5-shot-stopping deficit versus league average. A drop to mid-table is baked into the numbers. Projection: 6th, 48 points.
5. Luzern – New-American Money, Old-School Tactics
After 777 Partners’ takeover, Luzern splashed on American duo Bryan Reynolds and Juan Pablo Torres. Yet coach Mario Frick remains wedded to a conservative 5-3-2 that finished 2023–24 with the league’s fewest counter-attacks (22). Until tactical reform arrives, expect inconsistency. Projection: 5th, 52 points.
6. The Relegation Scrap
promoted side Bellinzona’s artificial-turf fortress yielded 41 of 57 points in the Challenge League, but the step up is stark: their squad market value (€7 m) is half the next lowest. Meanwhile, Sion replaced 70 % of minutes played by players over 30, inviting injury risk. The model gives both a 38 % chance of finishing in the automatic drop spot, but Sion’s experience edges survival. Projection: Bellinzona 10th (relegation playoff), Sion 9th.
Golden Boot Forecast
With Jean-Pierre Nsame gone to Qatar, Iten’s penalty duties and superior shots-on-target percentage (56 %) project him for 22 league goals, two clear of closest pursuer Miroslav Stevanović (Servette).
Breakout Star
Watch 17-year-old midfielder Nassim Azaouzi at Lausanne-Sport. The Morocco U-20 international completed 92 % of passes in pre-season, led the team in progressive carries, and already tops Wyscout’s “Similarity Score” to a young Granit Xhaka.
Bottom Line
Expect Young Boys to grind out a fifth straight title by March, yet the premium on squad rotation amid European fixtures opens a golden window for Servette or a refreshed Basel to push the gap under ten points—for the first time since 2020.
