On Saturday evening the Millerntor-Stadion will crackle with Hamburg pride as FC St. Pauli welcome Borussia Dortmund for a rare Bundesliga meeting. The newly promoted hosts have started the season with the fearless spirit that carried them to the 2. Bundesliga title, while Dortmund arrive still smarting from a patchy opening month that already sees them playing catch-up to Bayern and Leverkusen. With both sides desperate for momentum, the stage is set for a fascinating tactical chess-match on the Reeperbahn.
St. Pauli’s 3-4-3 has allowed them to dominate the flanks through overlapping wing-backs Jackson Irvine and Manolis Saliakas, but the system’s Achilles heel—space behind the advanced full-backs—could be ruthlessly exploited by Dortmund’s rapid transitions. Dortmund’s probable 4-3-3 under Nuri Şahin looks to funnel play through Julian Brandt’s interior movements and the explosive verticality of Karim Adeyemi, whose average top speed of 35.8 km/h is already the highest recorded in this young Bundesliga season.
Key numbers tilt heavily toward the visitors: Dortmund have scored in 25 consecutive away fixtures, and St. Pauli’s expected goals against (xGA) of 1.91 per match is the league’s worst through four rounds. Yet the Kiezkickers boast an intangible edge—Millerntor’s crowd ranks first in decibel readings this campaign, and the narrow pitch (105×68 m) compresses the space Dortmund rely on for diagonal switches. Add in the fact that St. Pauli have won their last three home cup ties against top-flight opposition, and an upset is not fantasy.
Injuries muddy the waters. Dortmund will again be without the suspended Nico Schlotterbeck, forcing Mats Hummels into a high-line partnership with the inexperienced Soumaïla Coulibaly. St. Pauli striker Johannes Eggestein, fresh off two goals in two games, will look to pin Coulibaly on the half-turn. For the home side, captain Jackson Irvine is rated 75 % fit after a calf complaint; his replacement, Afeez Aremu, offers more ball-winning but less build-up nuance.
Score prediction: St. Pauli 1-2 Dortmund. Expect a spirited opening hour from the hosts, but fresh legs from the bench—likely Youssoufa Moukoko and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens—should tip the balance late on.
