Copa del Rey fever is rising as Spain’s minnows dream of toppling La Liga giants in the round-of-32 first legs. Below are data-driven Spain Cup soccer predictions for every tie, plus one upset special that could light up your accumulator.
1. Real Madrid vs. Atlético Baleares (Wednesday 19:00 CET)
Forecast: Madrid 3-0 Baleares
Carlo Ancelotti is expected to rotate but still start Valverde and Camavinga to control midfield. Baleares’ 5-4-1 block has conceded only twice in four Tercera matches, yet Los Blancos’ 2.17 expected goals per home game dwarf that resistance. Bet: Real Madrid -2.5 Asian handicap.
2. Barcelona vs. Barbastro (Thursday 21:30 CET)
Forecast: Barcelona 4-1 Barbastro
Xavi promised minutes for Lamine Yamal and Fermín López. Barbastro’s high line (average defensive height 44.7 m) invites Pedri’s through-balls. Over 3.5 goals has hit in Barça’s last four cup openers; odds of 2.10 look generous.
3. Atlético Madrid vs. Lugo (Thursday 19:00 CET)
Forecast: Atlético 2-0 Lugo
Simeone will unleash Ángel Correa and Memphis Depay against a Lugo side that has failed to score in six straight away fixtures. Under 2.5 goals pays 1.83, but the safer angle is Atlético to win to-nil at 1.66.
4. Valencia vs. Cartagena (Wednesday 21:00 CET)
Forecast: Valencia 2-1 Cartagena
Rubén Baraja’s press has generated the third-most high turnovers in La Liga (42). Cartagena’s direct style (48% long-pass share) could exploit Valencia’s shaky back three. Both teams to score lands in six of Valencia’s last seven cup ties.
5. Upset Alert: Unionistas vs. Villarreal (Thursday 17:00 CET)
Forecast: 1-1 draw, Unionistas to advance on pens
Unionistas’ artificial turf and 10-match unbeaten run at Pistas del Helmántico unsettle possession sides. Villarfield arrive off a Europa League slog in Poland; Gerard Moreno and Sorloth may be rested. Double-chance (1X) is priced at 2.37, but the value lies in the correct-score 1-1 at 7.50.
Model Summary
Using Elo-based simulations (10,000 runs) blended with expected-goals surfaces, La Liga clubs progress 81% of the time against lower-division foes, yet the average margin shrinks to 1.38 goals when resting ≥4 starters. Factor rotation and travel fatigue into any Spain Cup soccer predictions, and always shop the Asian markets for cleaner lines.
Banker Parlay (odds 4.35)
Real Madrid -2
Barcelona over 2.5 team goals
Atlético win to-nil
Stake 1 unit.
Enjoy the midweek drama, and remember: the cup thrives on shocks, but data keeps the lights on.
