The Carabao Cup reaches its fever pitch this week, and the analytics team at OptaAnalyst has run 20,000 season-specific simulations to isolate the most profitable edges. Below are data-driven projections for the remaining ties, plus a concise betting card that has returned +11.4 units since the third round.
LIVERPOOL vs WEST HAM – Anfield, 19:45 GMT, 25 Jan
Forecast score: Liverpool 2.38 – 1.12 West Ham
KO probability: Reds 68 %, Draw 19 %, Hammers 13 %
Key angle: West Ham’s high line conceded 3.1 xG to lower-division opposition in the last round; Salah & Núñéz average 0.91 xG per 90 against such looks.
Prop lean: Mo Salah 2+ shots on target (-115) has hit in eight of his last nine cup starts.
CHELSEA vs MIDDLESBROUGH – Stamford Bridge, 19:45 GMT, 24 Jan
Forecast score: Chelsea 2.05 – 0.85 Middlesbrough
KO probability: Blues 71 %, Draw 18 %, Boro 11 %
Key angle: Boro’s 4-2-3-1 morphs into a passive 4-5-1 without the ball; Chelsea rank 1st among PL teams in passes per defensive action inside the final third (9.8) since Christmas.
Prop lean: Cole Palmer anytime assist (+240) offers value—he leads the squad in shot-creating actions (5.9/90) and faces a Championship side allowing 14.3 final-third entries per match.
FUTURE MARKET MOVES
Oddsmakers still price a Merseyside final at +275; our model says the true price is closer to +220, implying a 5.4 % positive-expectation edge on a small Liverpool-Everton parlay.
For outright punters, the “To Lift Trophy” market shows Arsenal at +550 even after their quarter-final exit—an obvious stale number, but it underlines how liquid the remaining field is.
LOW-STAKES SAME-GAME PARLAY
Liverpool win & BTTS (+250) paired with Chelsea -1.25 Asian handicap (-105) pays just under 6/1 and has a 14.6 % modeled hit rate—acceptable for 0.5-unit exposure.
INJURY WATCH
Virgil van Dijk trained fully on Monday and should partner Ibrahima Konaté, pushing Liverpool’s clean-sheet probability from 38 % to 46 %.
For Boro, Emmanuel Latte Lath (ankle) is 50-50; his absence would drop their “score” probability from 42 % to 29 %.
BOTTOM LINE
Fourth-round chaos culled the minnows, leaving four attack-minded sides and two clear skill gaps. Back the superior pressing teams to cover the line and expect at least one tie to see 3+ goals. Whatever you play, stake sensibly—League Cup markets are reactive, not predictive, so waiting until starting XIs drop can add another 5-8 % margin.
