The 2024-25 Scotland Premiership is weeks away from kickoff, and the annual question echoes from Glasgow to Shetland: can anyone stop Celtic? After a 2023-24 campaign that saw Brendan Rodgers’ side reclaim the trophy by eight points, the bookmakers have installed them as 4-6 favourites, marginally shorter than Rangers at 7-4. Yet beneath the surface of the Old Firm duopoly, a cluster of clubs believe the gap is closing. Here is a data-driven, injury-adjusted projection of how the table will finish next May.
1. Celtic – 88 pts
Rodgers kept Kyogo, added South Korean winger Yang Min-hyeok, and persuaded Matt O’Riley to ignore Premier League bids. Expected Goals (xG) models show Celtic creating 2.11 xGF per match last season, a league-best figure that will rise with Yang’s 0.59 xG+xA per 90 in the K-League. Only a catastrophic Champions League injury cluster keeps them from 90+ points.
2. Rangers – 84 pts
Philippe Clement’s high-line 4-3-3 shaved 0.4 goals off their defensive xGA in the final ten fixtures. If new keeper Jack Butland replicates his 74 % post-shot xG saved rate, Rangers will push Celtic to the penultimate weekend. The caveat: a Europa League playoff round could stretch a thin squad.
3. Heart of Midlothian – 62 pts
Under Steven Naismith, Hearts morphed into a pressing side that finished third in PPDA (passes per defensive action). With Kenneth Vargas adding pace on the break and the loan return of Jorge Grant to supply set-piece deliveries, the Jam Tarts are projected to score eight more goals than last season, insulating them from Aberdeen’s charge.
4. Aberdeen – 59 pts
Jimmy Thelin, arriving from Elfsborg, brings a vertical 3-4-2-1 that turned Swedish underdogs into top-three finishers. Bojan Miovski’s 0.48 xG per 90 is elite, but the Dons’ xGA jumps 12 % when Graeme Shinnie sits. A slow September could cost them the coveted Europa Conference slot.
5. Hibernian – 54 pts
David Gray promoted midfielder Dylan Levitt to the No. 8 role, unlocking Martin Boyle between the lines. Analytics site StatsBomb tags Hibs as the league’s most improved high-press team, yet their squad depth drops off a cliff after the first 14 players. Expect a late-season wobble similar to 2023-24.
Relegation battle
Dundee United’s immediate return to the top flight is forecast to be short-lived; their squad is the youngest in the division (avg. 22.8 years) and xGA models predict 63 goals conceded. St. Johnstone, hampered by a 14-goal striker departure, join them in the playoff spot, while Ross County survive by three points thanks to a soft April fixture list.
Golden Boot
Kyogo Furuhashi edges Miovski 24-22 in our Monte Carlo simulation, aided by Celtic’s extra four matches should they reach the Europa League knockout phase.
Break-out star
17-year-old Celtic midfielder Daniel Kelly is projected for 1,100 league minutes and five goal contributions, the highest under-18 tally since Karamoko Dembélé.
Bottom line
Expect another two-horse title race, but watch Hearts and Aberdeen make the run-in uncomfortable. The Scotland Premiership may still revolve around Glasgow, yet the chasing pack is faster, smarter, and no longer terrified of the Old Firm aura.
