The 2024–25 Scottish Premiership campaign is shaping up to be one of the most open races in years. While Celtic and Rangers remain the headline acts, a deeper look at summer recruitment, underlying numbers and early form suggests the gap between Glasgow’s giants and the rest is narrowing. Below are data-driven predictions for the final table, European places and the relegation battle.
1. Champions: Celtic
Brendan Rodgers’ second spell began slowly last season, but the Hoops finished with the division’s best expected-goals difference (+42.3) and have strengthened in key areas. The £5 million capture of Norwegian winger Oscar Kapskarmo adds pace that was missing against compact blocks, while the loan return of Mikey Johnston provides depth. With Rangers in transition, Celtic’s superior squad depth and 2025 Champions League revenue should see them across the line by 8–10 points.
2. Runners-up: Rangers
Philippe Clement has swapped flash for function, switching to a 4-2-3-1 that conceded only 0.78 xG per game after February. The permanent signing of Fabio Silva offsets the loss of Dessers’ goals, but creativity remains a concern: Rangers created 1.91 xG per 90 when Tavernier played, 1.43 when he didn’t. Unless young midfielder Ross McCausland explodes, they may drop points in ugly 0-0s that cost them the title.
3. Third: Hearts
Steven Naismith has built the league’s best pressing side outside the Old Firm (PPDA 9.2). On loan, Celtic’s Daniel Kelly adds verticality in midfield, while Kenneth Vargas’ 0.47 npxG/90 is elite for a 21-year-old. A thin bench probably prevents a title tilt, but third place and a cup run look likely.
4. Fourth: Dundee United
Jim Goodwin’s side were the Championship’s best team on metrics last year and have carried it forward. The loan signings of Everton’s Stanley Mills and Newcastle’s Dylan Stephenson give them top-half quality in the final third. Their 3-4-2-1 overloads weak full-backs; expect them to finish above city rivals Dundee.
5. Fifth: Hibernian
Nick Montgomery wants to build through the thirds, but Hibs’ midfield still loses second balls. Martin Boyle’s health is everything; without 25+ starts they could slip to seventh.
6. Sixth: Kilmarnock
Derek McInnes’ street-wise 5-4-1 keeps them hard to beat, and 38-year-old Kyle Vassell continues to outperform his xG. Europa League fatigue is the biggest threat.
Relegation:
12. Ross County – Goals have dried up since Malky Mackay’s exit; 0.89 xG per game is worst in league.
11. St Johnstone – Ageing core (avg starter 29.3 yrs) and no obvious goalscorer.
10. Motherwell – Transition year under Stuart Kettlewell; expect a late surge to survive on final day.
Player to Watch:
Ben Doak (Celtic, on loan from Liverpool). If the 18-year-old stays fit, he could top both assists and fouls drawn, a combo that decides tight Glasgow derbies.
Bold Call:
Aberdeen will finish seventh, their lowest since 2012, after Europa Conference League travel compromises their league form.
Final Table (predicted points):
1. Celtic – 92
2. Rangers – 84
3. Hearts – 68
4. Dundee United – 59
5. Hibernian – 56
6. Kilmarnock – 53
7. Aberdeen – 50
8. St Mirren – 48
9. Dundee – 45
10. Motherwell – 40
11. St Johnstone – 36 (survive via play-off)
12. Ross County – 28 (relegated)
Bet365 have Celtic at 1.60 and Rangers at 3.00; both prices look fair. For value, consider Dundee United top-six at 5.50 and Doak for Young Player of the Year at 12.00. Whatever unfolds, Scotland’s top flight promises drama from August to May.
