With the 2024–25 Scottish Premiership campaign approaching the halfway mark, familiar names sit atop the table—yet the numbers suggest this could be the tightest title fight in a decade. Using a composite model that blends Elo-based team ratings, expected-goals trends, injury-adjusted minutes, and ca-home form (Celtic and Rangers still enjoy a 0.56-goals-per-game “Parkhead/Ibrox bump”), here is how the top six are projected to finish and why.
1. Celtic – 81 pts (chance 48 %)
Brendan Rodgers’ side trail Rangers on goal difference today, but their post-winter depth is unmatched. Liel Abada’s return widens rotation options, while the xGD gap since match-day six (+1.71 per 90) is the league’s best. The model sees Celtic dropping points in only four of 19 remaining fixtures, including a draw at Ibrox.
2. Rangers – 78 pts (chance 39 %)
Philippe Clement has tightened a leaking defense, slicing non-penalty xG conceded from 1.22 to 0.81. Todd Cantwell’s central role unlocked the November surge, but fixtures at Pittodrie and Tynecastle remain tricky. A 6 % title swing hinges on the 2 January derby—lose there and their probability falls below 25 %.
3. Hearts – 63 pts (chance 8 %)
Finishing third would be a financial coup. Lawrence Shankland’s 0.61 xG per 90 underpins the attack, but a thin squad—only 13 players log >900 minutes—caps upside. The model awards the Jambos a 90 % lock on European group-stage football next summer.
4. Hibernian – 56 pts
Nick Montgomery’s press has climbed three tiers since September (PPDA down from 11.8 to 8.4). Martin Boyle’s health is the swing factor; if he tops 2 000 minutes, Hibs jump to 58 points and threaten Aberdeen for fourth.
5. Aberdeen – 54 pts
Jimmy Thelin’s rebuild remains ahead of schedule, but away-day blues (0.76 PPG on the road) keep the Dons a class below Edinburgh. A deep League Cup run may cost league freshness; expect a 5-8 point slide if they reach Hampden.
6. Dundee – 49 pts
Tony Docherty’s men are the best of the rest, riding a league-high 47 % set-piece goal share. American striker Zach Robinson’s 0.42 xG/shot leads Scotland; regression looms, yet Dundee’s cushion over the play-off pack is 11 points.
Relegation watch
Ross County’s 0.47 open-play xGD per 90 is worst since 2018; they finish 11th with 37 points. Livingston, minus Scott Pittman’s midfield metronome, prop up the table—though the model gives them a 54 % survival chance via the play-offs against Partick Thistle.
Golden boot
Kyogo Furuhashi edges Shankland 24-23 on projected goals, aided by six post-split fixtures against bottom-half defenses that concede 44 % more big chances.
Key inflection points
Match-day 24 (Old Firm at Celtic Park) and match-day 32 (Rangers–Hearts) carry combined 0.18 title leverage. Whoever leads after those two weekends lifts the trophy 73 % of the time.
Bottom line
Celtic remain probabilistic favorites, but Rangers sliced the gap from eight points to zero within nine match-days—proof that a single injury, suspension, or VAR call could tilt Scotland’s most storied duel. Strap in; the second half promises a classic.
