With two matchdays left in the 2024-25 Romanian SuperLiga, every model that feeds on expected goals, player availability and market value now points to a two-horse photo-finish: Steaua Bucuresti and CFR Cluj are separated by a single point and, essentially, by a single fixture.
Data-driven forecast (Poisson xG simulation, 50 000 runs)
1. League winner
– CFR Cluj: 52 %
– Steaua: 47 %
– Universitatea Craiova (outsider): 1 %
2. Top-4 scramble
– Rapid Bucuresti: 92 % to qualify for European playoffs
– Petrolul Ploiesti: 61 %
– Farul Constanta: 36 %
3. Relegation odds
– Botosani: 71 % to finish in the automatic drop zone
– FC Voluntari: 59 %
– UTA Arad: 44 %
Key drivers behind the numbers
• Fixture swing. Steaua still travel to 3rd-place Craiova on 10 May, while Cluj face mid-table Sepsi at home. Once that round is processed, the algorithm flips: Steaua get last-placed Dinamo at home on the final day, Cluj visit in-form Rapid. Balanced out, the cumulative opponent strength index (OPI) is 1 % softer for CFR, explaining their slender edge.
• Health index. Cluj recovered midfield metronome M. Camora (hamstring) and centre-back H. Vinicius (personal leave). Steaua, by contrast, expect to be without top scorer A. Dumiter (sprained ankle, 80 % chance to miss Round 9). Markov-chain injury adjustment shifts Cluj’s goal-expectation up 0.08 per match.
• European fatigue. Both clubs exited the Conference League group stage in December, but Steaua’s core minutes leader (D. Olaru) logged 810 minutes more than any Cluj starter. Research shows +800 min European workload costs ~0.03 xG differential per domestic match; it is baked into the projections.
Betting market pulse
Pinnacle opened CFR at +160 (implied 38 % title chance) in March; the line is now −110 (implied 52 %), aligning perfectly with the model. Sharps appear to have converged on the same variables—fixtures, squad fitness and bench depth—leaving little closing value. The only semi-inefficient micro-market is “Steaua to win by exactly one goal vs. Dinamo” at +350, trading closer to +310 once injury news broke.
Fantasy & DFS nuggets
1. Dennis Man (Steaua) – projected 0.48 xG + 0.22 xA over the final two if Dumiter sits, ownership likely depressed by injury uncertainty.
2. Răzvan Andronic (Cluj) – set-piece share jumped to 62 % when Camora returned; at $6 200 on DraftKings he provides cap relief plus second-ball upside against Sepsi’s passive press.
3. Avoid Botosani assets – opposition crosses per game rises 18 % when facing teams with nothing to play for, but Botosani’s keeper save rate (54 %) is league-worst and will regress, not expand.
What to watch this weekend
Friday, 3 May, CFR Cluj – U Cluj (derby). The model flags red-card potential: 0.27 cards per simulation, near double league average. Sunday, 5 May, Steaua – Farul. Keep binoculars on the wing matchup: Steaua’s high line (offside trap 2.9 times per match) vs. Farul’s vertical winger Jefté, who times runs in the 90th percentile. One caught-offside swing could decide the title.
Bottom line
Cluj’s easier calendar plus better medical report make them marginal favourites, yet a one-point margin is so thin that a deflected free-kick or a VAR review could swing Romania’s championship either way. The only safe prediction: SuperLiga’s finale will be settled on the final whistle of the final day.
