With eighteen matchdays left on the calendar, the 2024 Brasileirão is tighter than ever. Palmeiras sit on top with 35 points, but Internacional, Botafogo and Flamengo are all within four points, while traditional giants São Paulo, Corinthians and Atlético-MG still dream of a late surge. Using advanced xG models, injury reports and remaining fixtures, here are the key predictions that will decide the title race, Libertadores spots and relegation battle.
1. Palmeiras will win back-to-back titles
Despite Abel Ferreira’s flirtations with European jobs, Palmeiras have the deepest squad in the country. Ricardo Goulart’s return to fitness gives the coach a second creative hub beside Raphael Veiga, and 18-year-old striker Endrick has already scored five league goals from just 3.8 xG. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI rates Palmeiras 20% higher than any rival, and their remaining schedule is the league’s easiest (average opponent 11th in table). Projection: 78 points, first place.
2. Flamengo miss out on the top four
Jorge Sampaoli’s high line has improved attack output (2.1 xG per game), but the defensive record is worst among top-eight sides. With Rodrigo Caio out long-term and David Luíz turning 37 in April, expect more 3-2 scorelines. The Mengão still have Copa Libertadores congestion in September; we forecast 62 points and a fifth-place finish, good only for Copa Sudamericana.
3. Botafogo secure Libertadores spot via top four, not via Libertadores title
Luis Castro’s side lead the league in PPDA (passes per defensive action) and have the youngest starting XI in the division. Tiquinho Soares is reborn with 12 goals already, and the club’s data department leads Brazil in set-piece xG created. Forecast: 66 points, third place.
4. Grêmio and Atlético-PR claim the other two continental berths
Renato Gaúcho has transformed Grêmio into a counter-pressing machine; Luis Suárez’s knees are managed carefully, but even 60-minute cameos decide games. Atlético-PR, meanwhile, boast the league’s best aerial duel rate, perfect for Bruno Lage’s direct style. Both end on 59 points, edging Fluminense on head-to-head tiebreakers.
5. Relegation: Santos, Goiás, Coritiba, América-MG
Santos sold Marcos Leonardo to Benfica without a proven replacement; their non-penalty xG has dropped 28% since July. Goiás run the oldest squad (avg. 29.1), and their pressing intensity collapses after 60 minutes. Coritiba’s away form is a historically poor 0.24 points per game, while América-MG’s 6.1 xGA in the last five rounds is the league’s worst defensive stretch. Forecast final table bottom four: 32, 30, 27, 25 points respectively.
6. Golden Boot: Tiquinho Soares
Currently on 12 goals, the Botafogo striker is projected to finish with 23, edging out Palmeiras’ Endrick (21) and Fortaleza’s Juan Martín Lucero (19).
7. Breakout youngster: Lucas Beraldo
The 19-year-old Palmeiras centre-back has already completed more progressive passes than any Brazilian U23 defender since data collection began. A January move to Ligue 1 is rumoured at €25 m.
Bottom line
Expect Palmeiras to pull away in November, Flamengo to regret defensive frailty, and a gripping three-way relegation showdown on the final day. Bet responsibly, but if you want one futures ticket, back Palmeiras at +180 before their price shortens after the next international break.
