The 2024 Copa do Brasil enters its decisive phase, and the rumor mill is spinning faster than a dry leaf in Curitiba’s winter wind. Below are data-driven palpites (picks) for the headline ties, blending form charts, xG models, and a dash of canarinha intuition.
Quarter-final 1 – Atlético-MG vs São Paulo
Palpite: Atlético advances on penalties after a 3-3 aggregate slugfest. Hulk’s late away goal at Morumbi forces extra time, and goalkeeper Everson becomes the hero with two shoot-out stops.
Quarter-final 2 – Flamengo vs Palmeiras
Palpite: Palmeiras scrapes through 2-1 on aggregate. Endrick’s 89-minute counter inside a rabid Maracanã seals it, sending Abel Ferreira into his customary knee-slide in front of the Fla-Flu mural.
Quarter-final 3 – Fortaleza vs Grêmio
Palpite: Fortaleza’s Castelão cauldron matters. A 1-0 first-leg lead holds despite a late Grêmio siege; Tinga’s box-to-box engine covers every blade of grass and every heart in Ceará.
Quarter-final 4 – Cruzeiro vs Bahia
Palpite: Bahia’s surprise package continues. A 2-2 draw in Belo Horizonte is enough thanks to away goals; Marcos Leonardo’s chipped stoppage-time equalizer becomes a viral loop on Brazilian TikTok.
Dark-horse alert
Keep an eye on Bahia coach Rogério Ceni’s set-piece playbook—his squad leads the competition in headed goals (6). If they reach the semi-finals, a date with Palmeiras could produce an epic chess match of aerial bombardment versus positional press.
Golden boot lean
Atlético-MG’s Paulinho is averaging a goal every 87 minutes; expect him to finish top scorer at 6.5 total unless Palmeiras’ back line cuts supply lines in a potential semi-final clash.
Final forecast
Palmeiras vs Fortaleza at a packed Mané Garrincha. Verdão’s big-game gene prevails 2-0, lifting the cup for a record fifth time, while Endrick waves goodbye to Brazilian football before his Madrid move.
