With the 2024-25 La Liga campaign fast approaching, Osasuna predictions are swirling across Spanish football forums. After a roller-coaster 2023-24 season that ended in a safe mid-table finish, Jagoba Arrasate’s side now faces the classic question: consolidation or over-achievement?
Goalkeeper Sergio Herrera’s penalty-saving heroics last year masked an expected-goals against tally that ranked 14th in the division. If new Croatian centre-back Žarko Karamarko adapts quickly, the defence should climb toward the top ten, making under-2.5 goals in Pamplona fixtures a reliable weekly bet.
In midfield, the loan return of Aimar Oroz signals intent. The 22-year-old’s progressive passes (7.3 per 90) already outstrip most La Liga veterans, and alongside Jon Moncayola’s tireless pressing, Osasuna can dominate territory against the league’s bottom half. Expect at least one upset victory over a Champions-place contender at El Sadar, where crowd intensity regularly adds 0.2 xG to the home column.
Up front, the departure of Chimy Ávila leaves a creativity void, but Ante Budimir’s 17 career headers in La Liga suggest set-piece delivery will be critical. New analyst hire Iñigo Domínguez has increased near-post routines by 35 % in pre-season; Budimir to score first at odds above 8.0 could reward punters early in the calendar.
Analytics models price Osasuna’s top-half finish at 3.25, yet underlying metrics hint at 48-52 points—enough for eighth. A Europa Conference League push is realistic if squad rotation survives December’s congested schedule. In short, the Rojillos may not crack the top six, but shrewd bettors who back tight home score lines and Budimir anytime targets should harvest value before odds shorten on match-week highlights.
