With the 2024 Eliteserien campaign approaching the halfway mark, the title race is shaping up to be the tightest in years. Bodø/Glimt remain the benchmark, sitting top with an xG differential of +1.8 per 90, but serial champions Molde have quietly trimmed the gap to two points after a five-match winning streak driven by fresh talent Magnus Wolff Eikrem and on-loan wonderkid Oscar Aga.
Rosenberg’s rebuild under new coach Alfred Johansson is finally clicking; the Trondheim giants have climbed to third thanks to a league-best defensive record (0.92 goals conceded per game) and the emergence of 19-year-old winger Sverre Nypan. Expect them to challenge for an automatic Conference League slot if they maintain that steel through July.
The relegation battle looks equally dramatic. Sarpsborg 08, hampered by an injury-crisis at centre-back, are projected to collect only 0.85 points per game over the next seven rounds, dragging them into the bottom three. Sandefjord’s high-octane press, meanwhile, has generated surprise away wins at Lillestrøm and Tromsø; their underlying numbers hint at a climb to mid-table safety by August.
Upset alert: watch Haugesund’s dynamic wing-backs exploit Strømsgodset’s vulnerability to wide overloads this weekend—our model gives the home side a 44 % chance of victory, generous relative to market odds of 3.40.
Bold prediction: Molde will overtake Bodø/Glimt on goal difference on the final day, ending the league’s three-year northern dynasty, while Odd BK survive courtesy of a last-gasp Brann collapse.
