With one round left on the calendar, the 2023-24 Netherlands Eredivisie is still wide open at both ends of the table. Here is a data-driven look at the most likely outcomes based on current form, advanced metrics, and remaining fixtures.
1. Championship scenario
PSV Eindhoven travel to already-relegated Vitesse needing only a draw to guarantee the trophy. Despite their mid-week Europa League exertions, Peter Bosz’s side have won 11 straight league games by an aggregate 37-6. Opta’s model gives them a 96 % chance of securing at least the point required, so expect fireworks at the Philips Stadion when the squad returns with the shield.
2. Battle for the Champions League ticket
Ajax, Feyenoord and AZ are separated by two points in the fight for the country’s second automatic UCL berth. Ajax have the easiest schedule—at home to Almere City, who have lost eight of their last ten away matches—and a superior goal difference. Feyenoord must visit a Utrecht side still dreaming of Conference League qualification, while AZ face Heerenveen in Friesland. FiveThirtyEight projects Ajax (55 %), Feyenoord (30 %), AZ (15 %).
3. Europa & Conference League puzzle
Seventh place could still yield European football if PSV win the KNVB Cup, so Sparta, Utrecht, Twente and Heerenveen all enter Sunday with something on the line. Twente’s home record (11-3-1) makes them favorites to lock up fifth, while Sparta’s difficult trip to Alkmaar means Utrecht are tipped to steal the last play-off slot.
4. Relegation play-off picture
Fortuna Sittard’s shock 4-1 win at Emmen dragged Volendam and Excelsior back into danger. Goal difference now favors Fortuna by three over Volendam, who face high-scoring AZ. The model gives Volendam a 42 % chance of finishing seventeenth and entering the play-offs, with Excelsior at 36 % after drawing four consecutive matches.
5. Golden Boot and assists watch
Vangelis Pavlidis (AZ) and Luuk de Jong (PSV) sit on 26 goals, but only De Jong will start on Sunday. Expect the PSV captain to claim his fourth league top-scorer award, while Steven Berghuis’s 14 assists already guarantee him the playmaker crown.
Predicted final table (probability-weighted):
1. PSV 88 pts
2. Ajax 74 pts (GD +46)
3. Feyenoord 73 pts
4. AZ 71 pts
5. Twente 66 pts
6. Utrecht 58 pts
7. Sparta 56 pts
8. Heerenveen 54 pts
16. Excelsior 30 pts
17. Volendam 29 pts (→ play-offs)
18. Vitesse 19 pts (relegated)
Key betting angle: Combine PSV/draw double chance (-1200) with Ajax to win (-450) for a two-leg parlay around -310, one of the lowest-risk plays remaining on the Dutch coupon. Whatever your stake, round 34 promises drama from Rotterdam to Leeuwarden before the Eredivisie hands out its final verdicts.
