The 2023-24 Netherlands Eredivisie enters its final stretch with fireworks expected at both ends of the table. Data-driven projections give PSV Eindhoven a 78 % probability of reclaiming the championship, thanks to a seven-point cushion over Feyenoord and a goal difference that already tops +60. Roger Schmidt’s side have averaged 2.7 expected goals (xG) per match since the winter break, the best mark in Europe’s top eight leagues, and face only three remaining fixtures against sides currently in the top half. Unless they drop points twice and Feyenoord win out, the title will return to Philips Stadion after a three-year hiatus.
Below the summit, the race for the remaining Champions League ticket is effectively a box-office clash between Feyenoord and Twente. Arne Slot’s defending champions still have a 65 % chance of automatic UCL qualification, but Twente’s five-match winning streak has slashed the gap to two points. Analytics site Opta gives Twente a 31 % shot at leap-frog, largely because of a favorable schedule that includes four of the bottom six. AZ Alkmaar lurk four points back with a game in hand; their 22 % top-two odds hinge on beating Twente in Enschede on 5 May.
The Europa League and Conference League berths are even murkier. Ajax may sit eighth, yet their underlying numbers (second-best xG differential) imply positive regression. The supercomputer still labels them 52 % likely to finish inside the top six, despite a six-point gap to sixth-placed Heerenveen. Sparta Rotterdam, Utrecht and even resurgent Vitesse each carry a 20-30 % top-seven probability, setting up a six-team dogfight where goal difference—Sparta currently +6—could decide who enters the June playoffs.
At the bottom, the specter of automatic relegation haunts RKC Waalwijk (28 % drop chance) and Volendam (42 %), whose leaky defenses concede 2.1 and 2.3 goals per game respectively. Excelsior’s superior attack (1.5 goals scored per 90) gives them only a 19 % relegation risk, while Emmen—11th in the table—are projected 4th-worst because of a brutal run-in that includes PSV, Feyenoord and AZ. The final relegation playoff ticket is a coin-flip between Cambuur and Go Ahead Eagles, both on 27 points with identical -18 goal difference.
Key players to watch down the stretch include PSV’s Johan Bakayoko, whose 0.71 non-penalty xG + xA per 90 leads the league, and Twente striker Ricky van Wolfswinkel, who has already bettered his expected goals tally by 4.3—an unsustainable over-performance that could cool just as Twente need goals most. On the flip side, Ajax’s Steven Bergwijn has under-performed his xG by 3.8; if the winger finally finds his shooting boots, the Amsterdam giants could yet sneak into Europe.
With nine match-days left, the Eredivisie’s analytics models foresee 24 % of remaining matches ending in upsets, nearly double the Premier League’s 13 %. That volatility keeps every storyline alive: PSV’s coronation march, Feyenoord’s nerve test, Ajax’s redemption arc, and the relegation minefield below. Whatever happens, the Dutch top flight is poised for its most dramatic finale since 2019.
