The National League is shaping up to be a photo-finish thriller in 2024, and the first batch of advanced projection models agree on only one thing: nothing is agreed on. With the new balanced schedule smoothing divisional edges and MLB’s rule changes rewarding athleticism over brute force, every extra inning could flip October’s bracket. Here are the data-driven storylines most likely to decide the pennant.
1. Dodgers still rule the regular season…barely
Even without a headline-grabbing winter splurge, Los Angeles projects to 96 wins by FanGraphs’ depth charts, tops in the NL. The reason is infrastructure: an MLB-best 7.3 fWAR from the bullpen and at least 3-WAR upside at every position. Yet the gap behind Atlanta has narrowed to four wins, the smallest since 2018, meaning a slow April could cost them the bye.
2. Braves offense is unfair—and sustainable
Ronald Acuña could go 30-70, but the real revelation is the team’s 122 wRC+ forecast, six points higher than any other NL club. Projections love Atlanta’s plate-discipline profile; they finished first in walk-to-whiff ratio last year and imported Jarred Kelenic’s bat speed to replace Eddie Rosario’s whiffs. Put simply, the Braves are the only lineup with four legitimate 6-WAR players, making the NL East a two-team race by June.
3. Sleeper alert: Milwaukee grabs the final Wild Card
The Central is baseball’s weirdest division, but the Brewers’ pitching lab keeps churning out 95-mph cutters and 18-inch sweepers. Corbin Burnes is gone, but Freddy Peralta, DL Hall, and a full season of Abner Uribe translate to the NL’s third-best rotation ERA projection (3.78). Pair that with Jackson Chourio’s 4.2-WAR debut season and Milwaukee sneaks in at 87 wins.
4. The Phillies bullpen could decide the entire league
Philadelphia’s starters remain dominant, but the late-inning forecast is shaky: José Alvarado’s shoulder tightness already clouds March, and Craig Kimbrel’s whiff rate fell below 25 % last year. If the bridge to the ninth wobbles, the Mets—who quietly compiled the league’s best second-half bullpen ERA—could swipe the third Wild Card at 85 wins.
5. Padres fade, Reds surge
San Diego’s offseason payroll trim drops them to 79 wins by Steamer, as Juan Soto’s 5.6-WAR exit leaves a crater behind Xander Bogaerts and an aging Manny Machado. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s young core—Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Hunter Greene—improves by nearly eight wins collectively, pushing the Reds to 84 victories and a legitimate October shot.
6. Individual hardware picks
MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr. repeats with a 9.1-fWAR, 40-homer, 65-steal campaign that edges Mookie Betts on narrative.
Cy Young: Spencer Strider sets the modern strikeout record (325) and dethrones Blake Snell.
Rookie of the Year: Jackson Chourio out-slugs Jung Hoo Lee thanks to plus defense in center.
7. The October call
The last week will feature a five-way scrum at 86–88 wins for two Wild Card spots: Brewers, Phillies, Mets, Reds, and the sneaky Giants. Monte Carlo simulations run 10,000 times spit out this most common bracket:
Division winners: Braves (102), Dodgers (96), Brewers (87)
Wild Cards: Phillies (89), Mets (86), Reds (84)
NLCS: Braves over Dodgers in seven, ending LA’s season on a Will Smith walk-off—just not the one who pitches for them.
Bet at your own risk, but in the National League’s new parity era, the only lock is chaos.
