With Europe’s major leagues entering their final stretch, Sunday 4 May 2025 offers a compact but high-stakes card. Data-driven models, injury bulletins and motivation indexes point to five selections worth staking, plus two longer-shot correct scores for fun. Odds reference Bet365 at the time of writing.
1. Everton vs Burnley – Premier League, Goodison Park, 14:00 BST
Key stat: Sean Dyche’s side have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 away matches.
Projection: Everton 1.83 xG, Burnley 0.91 xG, 63 % win expectancy for the Toffees.
Pick: Everton to win to nil @ 2.40 (1 unit).
Low-stake flier: 2-0 correct score @ 9.00 (0.25 unit).
2. Stuttgart vs Union Berlin – Bundesliga, MHPArena, 15:30 CEST
Stuttgart need a point to secure Champions League football; Union are safe but travel poorly (1 win in 11 on the road).
Pick: Stuttgart -1 Asian handicap @ 1.95 (1 unit).
3. Lille vs Le Havre – Ligue 1, Pierre-Mauroy, 17:05 CEST
Lille’s top-three fate is in their own hands, while Le Havre’s relegation is already confirmed. Paulo Fonseca’s side average 2.4 goals per home match versus bottom-five opposition.
Pick: Lille & over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 (1 unit).
Scorecast: 3-1 @ 11.00 (0.25 unit).
4. Real Betis vs Osasuna – LaLiga, Benito Villamarín, 18:30 CEST
Betis lock down their Conference League spot with a draw; Osasuna have nothing to play for and will rotate.
Pick: Betis -0.75 @ 1.76 (1 unit).
5. Braga vs Famalicão – Primeira Liga, 19:30 WEST
Braga’s Europa League hopes hinge on winning their last two; Famalicao have the league’s second-worst away xGA (1.93 per 90).
Pick: Braga -1.25 @ 1.83 (1 unit).
Smart accumulator: Everton to win + Stuttgart to win + Lille to win, pays 4.40 (0.75 unit).
Banker double: Stuttgart & Braga both to win @ 2.25 (2 units).
Stake sensibly, enjoy the action and may the green screens roll on 4 May 2025.
