Sunday, May 4, 2025, delivers a loaded European card as domestic leagues near their decisive rounds. Here are our data-driven prognostics for the most watchable matches.
1. Premier League – Anfield, 17:30 CET
Liverpool vs. Chelsea
Both sides average 2.7 combined goals per 2025 league meeting, and expected-goals models put the median at 2.9 today. Klopp’s last home game as Liverpool boss should end high-tempo but open; Chelsea’s youth-heavy XI remains shaky defending channel runs.
Prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Chelsea | BTTS & Over 2.5 (1.83)
2. La Liga – Bernabéu, 21:00 CET
Real Madrid vs. Valencia
Los Blancos need two wins from three to secure the title before the Champions League final. Valencia’s back four without Mosquera yield 1.68 xG away since February. Take Madrid to cover the handicap.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-0 Valencia | Madrid -1.5 AH (1.71)
3. Serie A – San Siro, 18:00 CET
AC Milan vs. Roma
Fourth place on the line. Roma have won three straight, but Milan’s 4-2-3-1 with Loftus-Cheek as shadow striker creates height mismatches on set pieces. With spin data showing 60 % of Roma’s conceded chances from crosses, expect Leão to target the far post.
Prediction: AC Milan 2-1 Roma | Milan to win (1.95)
4. Bundesliga – Allianz Arena, 15:30 CET
Bayern Munich vs. Freiburg
Bayern still trail Leverkusen by one point. Kane’s non-penalty xG/90 sits at 0.78; Freiburg’s high line gives up 0.42 per match through balls inside 30 m. Statistical edge is massive.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 4-1 Freiburg | Bayern -2 (2.05)
5. Ligue 1 – Parc des Princes, 20:45 CET
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Lille
PSG’s post-Mbappé offense averages 2.4 goals per match in 2025 thanks to Barcola-led transitions. Lille fight for European spots, yet lose possession 58 % of the time on the road. PSG should coast, though rotation risk caps confidence.
Prediction: PSG 3-1 Lille | PSG -1.25 AH (1.82)
Accumulator tip
Combine Liverpool/Chelsea BTTS, Real Madrid -1.5, Milan win and Bayern -1: odds @ 9.80 (max stake 1 u).
Remember to shop lines 30 minutes before kickoff and to respect bank-roll discipline. Enjoy the action—May 4, 2025 could script major title twists.
