Mainz 05 host Dynamo Dresden in the second round of the DFB-Pokal on Tuesday night, and the Bundesliga outfit will be eager to avoid a cup upset against the 3. Liga side. Mainz’s inconsistent league form—three wins, four losses in nine matchdays—has kept fans nervous, yet their home record remains solid: four victories from the last five competitive fixtures at the Mewa Arena. Bo Svensson’s men average 1.6 xG for per home game, suggesting chances come regularly, but defensive gaps (1.4 xGA) still give opponents hope.
Dresden arrive in decent fettle, unbeaten in eight league outings and sitting second in the third tier. Coach Guerino Capretti has drilled a compact 4-4-2 that concedes just 0.9 goals per match, although the attack’s 1.2 xG for hints at limited firepower on the break. Away from home, Dresden have drawn five of eight fixtures, mirroring their disciplined but cautious approach.
Head-to-head, the clubs have not met since 2020, when Mainz edged a friendly 2-1. Cup history, however, favors the underdog: Mainz have been eliminated by lower-league opponents twice in their last five cup campaigns, while Dresden reached the quarter-finals as a third-tier side in 2019.
Team news: Mainz captain Silvan Widmer is questionable with a thigh strain, while striker Ludovic Ajorque is expected to start after scoring twice at the weekend. Dresden will miss right-back Akaki Gogia (knee), but top scorer Stefan Kutschke—six goals this season—will lead the line.
Expected line-ups
Mainz (3-5-2): Zentner – Bell, Fernandes, Caci – da Costa, Barkok, Kohr, Lee, Barreiro – Ajorque, Onisiwo
Dresden (4-4-2): Broll – Becker, Mai, Ehlers, Weinhauer – Königsdörffer, Konrad, Stark, Mörschel – Kutschke, Batmaz
Key duel: Anton Stach vs. Paul Will in midfield—whoever controls tempo will dictate the rhythm of this cup tie.
Prediction: Mainz boast superior individual quality, yet Dresden’s compact block and recent form can frustrate the hosts for long spells. Expect the Bundesliga side to break through late, but a pesky Dresden goal is likely against a shaky back three.
Score forecast: Mainz 2-1 Dresden (after 90 minutes)
