The 2024-25 Ligue 1 campaign is shaping up to be one of the most open title races in recent memory. With Paris Saint-Germain entering a post-Mbappé era, the power vacuum at the top invites a handful of ambitious clubs to dream of glory. Early data models project a three-horse race between PSG, Marseille, and resurgent Lyon, but underlying numbers hint at a possible dark-horse surge from Lens or even Brest.
PSG’s predicted points tally has dropped 11 % compared to last season’s simulations, primarily because xG calculations no longer factor in Kylian Mbappé’s 2.3 non-penalty xG per 90. Yet Luis Enrique’s ball-dominant scheme still generates the league’s highest shot volume, and new signing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is forecast to add 0.4 xG+xA per 90, softening the blow. Betting markets have shortened PSG to +125 for the title, but Elo-based simulations give them only a 46 % chance—lowest since the QSI takeover.
Marseille, under Marcelino’s second year, own the league’s largest positive transfer net spend (+€82 m). Predictive algorithms love their projected midfield of Greenwood, Harit, and Veretout, which ranks first in progressive passes per 90 in preseason friendlies. The model tabs OM for 78 points, narrowly behind PSG’s 81, with a 29 % title probability thanks to a softer schedule in the final ten matchdays.
Lyon’s wildcard status hinges on Alexandre Lacazette staying fit. His 0.67 goals+xG per 90 last season was elite, and at age 33, rotation management could yield 25-27 starts. If core youngsters like Cherki and Caqueret continue their upward xGChain trends, simulations grant Lyon a 15 % championship chance and a top-three finish 62 % of the time—massive value at current +900 odds.
Outside the podium, Lens lose Facundo Medina but retain an aggressive press that produced the league’s second-best xGA in 2023-24. Their forecasted 66 points are only four off the historical UCL qualification line, giving them a 38 % shot at the top four. Meanwhile, Brest’s aerial dominance and set-piece efficiency (19 goals from dead balls last year) remain intact; the model sees a 30 % probability they repeat last season’s shock surge, albeit with slimmer margins.
Relegation probabilities paint a bleaker picture for the newly promoted trio. Auxerre’s squad market value is 60 % below the league median, and their simulated 29-point haul gives a 48 % chance of immediate relegation. Angers and Rodez fare marginally better at 36 % and 34 % respectively, but all three are forecast to occupy the bottom four alongside Le Havre, whose attack evaporated post-winter break (0.8 xG per match after February).
Individual accolades look equally competitive. The Golden Boot algorithm favors Lacazette at 23.4 expected goals, just ahead of Marseille’s Greenwood (22.1) and PSG’s Ramos (21.7). Assists leader projections tilt toward Khvicha (9.8 xA) thanks to PSG’s high shot volume, though Lyon’s Caqueret could surprise at +1800 odds if set-piece duty shifts his way.
Ultimately, the Monte Carlo table ran 50 000 iterations and delivered one headline: PSG are still favorites, but the gap has never been smaller. If Mbappé’s exit removes the late-game clutch factor that turned stalemates into wins, the Parisians could drop 8-10 points in draws. In such a scenario, Marseille’s deeper squad and Lyon’s high-variance attack have never had a better chance to end the capital’s decade-long dominance.
