The 2024 Clausura is shaping up as one of the most open Liga MX races in years. After analyzing early-season form, expected goals (xG) trends, and injury lists, four clubs emerge as genuine title threats: América, Monterrey, Guadalajara, and the surprise package Toluca. Below are the must-watch fixtures and why each contender could lift the trophy in May.
1. Round 6 Superclásico: América vs Guadalajara (Estadio Azteca, 9 March)
América’s high press under André Jardine is generating 2.1 xG per game, best in the league, but Chivas’ new 3-4-3 has reduced defensive transition time by 18 %. Look for a 2-2 draw with Henry Martín and Roberto Alvarado both finding the net; neither side can afford to lose ground before the Liguilla seedings solidify.
2. Northern Clásico: Monterrey vs Tigres (Estadio BBVA, 16 March)
Monterrey’s 12-match home unbeaten streak faces its stiffest test. Tigres’ acquisition of prolific French striker André-Pierre Gignac gives them a league-leading 2.4 goals per away match. Prediction: a 3-2 Monterrey win decided by a late set-piece header from captain Héctor Moreno.
3. Dark-horse watch: Toluca at home to León (Estadio Nemesio Díez, 23 March)
Ignacio Ambriz has turned Toluca into the league’s transition kings, averaging only 6.8 seconds between regaining possession and taking the first shot. León’s aging midfield can be overrun; expect a 3-1 Toluca victory that propels them into the top four.
Liguila Quarter-final seeds
If the table ended today, América (1) would face Pachuca (8), while Monterrey (2) would draw Puebla (7). Upset alert: Pachuca’s counter-attack speed makes them the most dangerous underdog, with a 40 % chance of eliminating América according to our weighted playoff model.
Golden Boot race
Henry Martín leads with 9 goals, but escort striker pairings at both UANL and Toluca are closing fast. Model projection: Martín finishes on 15, just ahead of Gignac at 14.
Relegation scrap
Although Mexico uses a coefficient system across three seasons, FC Juárez’s 0.9 points-per-game pace puts them in jeopardy for the 2025 drop. A home date versus Necaxa on 30 March is effectively a six-pointer; simulation shows the winner lifts survival odds from 38 % to 62 %.
Bottom line
Momentum, schedule strength and squad depth point to an América-Monterrey final, but Guadalajara’s academy pipeline and Toluca’s tactical surprise could produce the first final without either super-power since 2016. Expect fireworks, dramatic late goals, and another reminder that Liga MX remains the most unpredictable top division in the Americas.
