Liga MX prediction models have never been busier than this offseason. With the Apertura 2024 kickoff only weeks away, data scientists, bookmakers, and barstool strategists are all asking the same question: can anyone stop the blue-and-yellow juggernaut from Guadalajara?
1. The Favorites
Puebla’s miraculous Clausura run is the feel-good story everyone remembers, yet fiveThirtyEight’s SPI still tabs Club América as the side to beat. The numbers are blunt: América finished 2023 with an expected-goal differential of +24, the league’s deepest bench, and—crucially—no Copa Libertadores distraction this semester. Add a proven scorer in Henry Martín (0.72 non-penalty xG/90) and you have the league’s most balanced squad. Probability to finish top-four: 68 %.
2. The Contenders
Tigres’ offseason haul reads like a FIFA Career Mode save. Fernando Gorriarán and Diego Reyes arrived to reinforce a midfield that already controlled 56 % possession in the Clausura, while new manager Juan Pablo Vojvoda’s pressing scheme produced the third-most high-turnover chances in the league. Prediction engines now give Tigres a 17 % title chance, second only to América. Monterrey, meanwhile, quietly rebuilt their back line around youth-products Jesús Gallardo and Sebastián Vegas. If new keeper Esteban Andrada replicates his 2022 Libertadores form, “Rayados” can shorten any playoff tie to a coin-flip.
3. The Dark Horses
Don’t sleep on León. After a 2023 injury crisis, Ángel Mena and Elías Hernández are healthy, Víctor Dávila looks Bundesliga-ready, and coach Nicolás Larcamón finally has the squad depth to implement his 3-4-3 man-marking scheme. Analytics site StatsBomb projects León for the fourth-best xG trend entering July, pricing them at 7-1 to win the championship—generous odds for a side that made two finals in three years.
4. The Relegation-Trap Sleeper
Juárez finished 15th last season but buried their playoff hopes under a mountain of late goals conceded (13 after 80’). New Argentine coach Mauricio Barbieri drilled the second-best defensive record in preseason Coapa tournaments, and with 24-year-old Paraguayan striker Fernando Fernández arriving on loan, Juárez could claw into the repechaje. Model probability to escape bottom-five: 61 %.
5. Key Metrics to Watch
– Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA): América’s Luis Malagón ranked first with +6.1 GSAA; Tigres’ Nahuel Guzmán was worst among playoff keepers (-2.4). That swing alone could decide a semifinal.
– Set-piece efficiency: Toluca converted 34 % of dead-ball situations, nearly double the league average. If goalkeeper Tiago Volpi returns early from injury, Toluca’s stone-wall set defense keeps them in every 1-0 dogfight.
– Youth minutes: Club Universidad Nacional (Pumas) gave 41 % of available minutes to U-21 players last tournament—highest since 2017. The trade-off is short-term inconsistency, but the long-term forecast ranks Pumas’ talent pipeline No. 1 in North America.
Title Pick
The algorithm says América vs. Tigres final, with a 52 % probability of a Mexico City parade in December. Yet the beauty of Liga MX prediction is its chaos: single-elimination playoffs, altitude trips to Toluca, and referee drama that can flip a 0.9 xG advantage inside one VAR review. Expect the script to rip—because in Liga MX, the spreadsheet rarely survives the 90th minute.
