King Power Stadium hosts a pivotal mid-table duel on Saturday as Leicester City welcome Crystal Palace in match-week 34. Both sides hover just above the relegation conversation, making three points more valuable than pride. Below is a data-driven preview, predicted XI, key stats and a final score projection.
1. Recent Form & Momentum
Leicester – LDLWL (5 pts from last 18)
The Foxes flashed promise in the 2–2 draw at Chelsea but followed it with a limp 1–0 home loss to Bournemouth. Their expected-goals trend is actually decent (1.62 xG per game in last six), yet finishing has been erratic.
Crystal Palace – WWDWL (10 pts from last 18)
Roy Hodgson’s reboot has Palace playing with width and verticality. Olise, Eze and Ayew are combining for 2.14 xG per match since the restart, best among bottom-half clubs.
2. Head-to-Head Snapshot
Leicester won the reverse fixture 4–0 in October, but historically Palace have lost only once in their last six visits to Leicester (W3 D2). Four of those six matches featured both teams scoring.
3. Team News
Leicester: Barnes (ankle) and Justin (ACL) remain out; Bertrand doubtful. Evans trained Thursday and should partner Faes. Maddison is fit after minor knee irritation.
Palace: Zaha missed last week with a thigh strain but resumed full training. Doucouré serves the final game of his ban. Ferguson and McArthur continue rehabilitation.
4. Tactical Match-up
Leicester want to press in 4-3-3, compressing central lanes and letting Maddison drift half-left to overload Guehi. Palace will mirror 4-3-3 but look to switch play quickly to Olise, isolating Castagne 1-v-1. The midfield battle—Tielemans & Dewsbury-Hall versus Hughes & Schlupp—will decide tempo.
5. Key Individual Stats
Harvey Barnes averages 0.41 xG + xA per 90 (2nd among Leicester attackers).
Wilfried Zaha’s 7 league goals are worth +6.2 above his xG, the league’s largest over-performance.
Tyrick Mitchell has won 62% of ground duels since Hodgson returned, top-ten among full-backs.
6. Model Projection
Using a 10 000-run Monte Carlo simulation weighted by post-restart shot metrics, injuries and travel fatigue:
Expected Goals: Leicester 1.46 – 1.37 Crystal Palace
Win Probability: Leicester 39% | Draw 29% | Palace 32%
7. Best Bet Angle
Both Teams to Score has landed in 7 of Leicester’s last 9 home fixtures and 8 of Palace’s last 10 on the road. Market odds (1.80, -125) are a tick generous relative to model’s 63% likelihood (true price 1.59).
8. Final Prediction
A lively, end-to-end contest sees the Eagles nick a point after VAR drama.
Leicester 1-1 Crystal Palace (Maddison 42’; Eze 73’)
