The dust has barely settled on last season’s dramatic finale, yet the smart money is already shifting toward fresh League Two predictions. With newly relegated sides itching for instant redemption, ambitious promoted outfits dreaming of back-to-back climbs, and a handful of sleeping giants awakening under new ownership, the 2024-25 campaign looks as open as ever. Below, we crunch the numbers, analyse the summer overhaul, and highlight the clubs best positioned to dictate the narrative.
Title Favourites
1. Milton Keynes Dons – After a humbling drop, MK Dons kept the core of their squad and persuaded top scorer Max Dean to stay. Scott Lindsey’s side ranked top-three for expected goals (xG) in the final 15 games of 2023-24, and the addition of ball-winning midfielder Jack Tucker addresses the soft centre that cost them points. Anything short of automatic promotion will be failure.
2. Doncaster Rovers – Grant McCann has quietly built the division’s deepest forward line. Five players scored eight or more league goals last year, and the loan return of Tottenham prospect Jamie Donley adds guile between the lines. Rovers’ Achilles heel was set-pieces (conceded 16), but the recruitment of 6’5″ centre-half Tom Anderson should plug that leak.
3. Bradford City – Mark Hughes silenced skeptics by steering the Bantams to seventh on a shoestring. Now backed by fresh American investment, City smashed their transfer record for Crewe playmaker Elliott Nevitt. If new ownership delivers two more starters before deadline day, Valley Parade could host League One football next August.
Dark Horses
1. Barrow – The Bluebirds flirted with the play-offs until mid-March before injuries bit. A fully fit squad plus the permanent signing of quicksilver winger Emile Acquah means Pete Wild’s pressing machine will start faster. Underlying metrics say Barrow should have finished 8th, not 14th.
2. Walsall – Mat Sadler has implemented an eye-catching 3-4-2-1 that turned Fellows Park into a fortress (nine clean sheets in last 12 home matches). Isaac Hutchinson’s 12 goals from midfield earned a new deal, and tying down young full-back Brandon Comley provides stability. The market still prices the Saddlers like a mid-table side—grab the value while it lasts.
Relegation Scrap
1. Harrogate Town – Sulphurites lost 19 of 23 away fixtures and their leading scorer, Luke Armstrong, to Stockport. Without a proven replacement, goals look scarce for a side that conceded the second-most shots in the division.
2. Swindon Town – Fan unrest, a managerial carousel and an exodus of senior pros have shredded squad cohesion. Until a permanent boss is appointed and five first-team bodies arrive, Swindon are anchor material.
3. Morecambe – Playing 30 miles from home at a rented stadium while their own ground is rebuilt is a logistical nightmare. Budget cuts trimmed the wage bill by 30 %, and expected goals models forecast a 20-point drop.
Golden Boot Race
MK Dons’ Max Dean (21 last season) is 4/1 favourite, but watch Forest Green’s new signing Matty Stevens at 12/1. Stevens scored 22 in 2022-23 before injury; fully fit, he’ll feast on service from Reece Brown in a system built for strikers.
Breakthrough Star
Crewe’s 18-year-old midfielder Baylee Dipepa has been compared to a young Dele Alli by academy staff. Three pre-season goals and interest from Premier League scouts signal a breakout year.
Managerial Merry-Go-Round
Salford City’s hierarchy remain trigger-happy despite back-to-back top-half finishes. Anything less than top-three in November could see Neil Wood axed, opening the door for fan-favourite Gary Bowyer to return.
Bottom-Line Predictions
Automatic promotion: MK Dons, Doncaster Rovers
Play-off winners: Bradford City
Surprise package: Barrow
Relegated: Harrogate, Swindon, Morecambe
Top scorer: Max Dean (24 goals)
Player of the Year: Jack Tucker (MK Dons)
Bet accordingly, but remember: League Two specializes in the absurd. A red card in the 93rd minute or a freak own goal can derail the best-laid predictions faster than you can say “COVID-era loan.”
