Spain’s second flight enters the 2024/25 stretch with seven points blanketing the top three and a relegation trapdoor that could swallow even mid-table sides. Using StatsBomb’s xG model, injury boards and market prices, here are the key forecasts over the final seven matchdays.
1. Automatic promotion race
Levante (P1, 63 pts) – Fixtures vs. Alcorcón (H), Eldense (A) and amateurs already on the beach give Granotes the softest run-in. Projected finish: 77 pts (78 % chance of top-two).
Leganés (P2, 61 pts) – Copa shock exit was a blessing; Andriy Lunin’s three straight clean sheets underline a 0.81 xGA/90 since February. Two road games (Valladolid, Burgos) are tricky, but 75 pts still expected; promotion odds 65 %.
Valladolid (P3, 58 pts) – The deepest squad on paper, yet 1.09 xG difference per match when Monchu doesn’t start is worrying. If they beat Leganés head-to-head (GW 38), simulations spike them to 72 pts (37 % top-two).
Dark horse: Espanyol (P5, 57 pts) – Martin Braithwaite has nine post-winter goals, and对手remaining schedule ranks 18th in average opponent strength. Surging to 74 pts is plausible, forcing the top two to sweat.
2. Play-off picture
Eibar (56 pts), Racing Santander (54) and Oviedo (53) are separated by one home win. Our Monte Carlo set likes Santander’s 18-year-old winger, Marcos André, whose 0.41 xA/90 is third in the league. They edge into the last playoff node 52 % of the time. Elche, a point behind, carry playoff pedigree but rely on too many loanees; simulations give them only a 28 % chance.
3. Relegation six-pointer radar
Amorebieta (20th, 36 pts) hit 10 points from the last 12 under new boss José Luis Martí, yet still face Zaragoza and Levante. Albacete (19th, 37 pts) have the league’s worst set-piece defense (14 conceded). The model forecasts both on 43 pts, sending Albacete down on head-to-head record with 60 % probability. Huesca (18th, 39 pts) survive by a single goal difference in 55 % of runs thanks to keeper Andrés Fernández’s 74 % save rate inside the box.
4. Golden boot stretch
Myrto Uzuni (Granada) sits on 21 goals, four clear of Espanyol’s Braithwaite. With three of Granada’s last four at home, the Albanian’s conversion rate (21 goals from 17.7 xG) is due negative regression, but shot volume keeps him favourite to finish top scorer (74 %).
5. Betting value nuggets
Leganés to win the title outright at 4.2 (implied 24 %) is mispriced if you buy their defense; model fair price 2.9. Santander to finish top six at 2.25 is also a plus-EV play with a 56 % true probability. On the relegation coupon, Albacete at 2.1 is short; back Amorebieta at 3.3 each-way instead.
Bottom line: Levante’s schedule is too gentle to ignore, Leganés have the best process, and Espanyol remain the playoff-bound side no upper-table wants to face. Expect drama until 96th-minute whistles echo across provincial Spain on June 23.
