Israel Premier League Prediction: Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Hapoel Be’er Sheva – Matchday 28 Forecast & Betting Angles
With only seven matchdays left, every point is gold at the summit of the Ligat Ha’Al. Maccabi Tel Aviv welcome Hapoel Be’er Sheva to Bloomfield Stadium on Saturday night in a six-pointer that could decide the title race. Below is a data-driven preview, predicted XI, key stats and a final score projection.
1. Current Form & Table Context
• Maccabi Tel Aviv – 1st, 68 pts, GD +42
Last five league matches: W-W-D-W-W (10 goals scored, 2 conceded).
• Hapoel Be’er Sheva – 2nd, 63 pts, GD +29
Last five: W-D-W-W-L (7 scored, 3 conceded). A win narrows the gap to two points and swings the head-to-head tiebreaker in their favour.
2. Injury & Suspension Watch
Maccabi: centre-back Sheran Yeini is suspended after his 8th yellow. Right-back Enric Saborit returned to training but remains doubtful. Hapoel BS striker Itay Shechter is out for the season (ACL). Midfielder Marwan Kabha is fit again after a calf issue.
3. Tactical Snapshot
Under Robbie Keane, Maccabi have shifted to a 4-3-3 that morphs into 3-1-6 in possession. Left winger Dor Peretz tucks inside, allowing left-back Sun Menahem to overlap. Without Yeini, 19-year-old Israel U-21 international Stav Lemkin will partner Luis Hernandez.
Be’er Sheva still deploys Barak Bachar’s conservative 5-3-2, looking to hit quickly through Sagiv Yehezkel and substitute pace man Eugene Ansah. The key duel will be Maccabi’s double pivot (Gabi Kanichowsky & Joris van Overeem) against BS pressing midfield triangle.
4. Advanced Numbers (StatsBomb, 2023/24)
Expected Goals per 90: Maccabi 2.11 (1st), Hapoel BS 1.74 (2nd)
Expected Goals Against: Maccabi 0.88 (1st), BS 1.02 (2nd)
Set-piece goals: Maccabi 14 (league-best), BS 6
Fast-break possessions leading to shot: BS 28 (1st), Maccabi 17 (4th)
Translation: Maccabi dominate territory and set plays; Be’er Sheva are the league’s deadliest transition side.
5. Head-to-Head
Last five meetings: Maccabi 3-2 aggregate (two 1-0 wins, one 2-2 draw, one 0-1 loss). The last clash (R16) ended 1-0 for Maccabi thanks to a 94th-minute Eran Zahavi penalty.
6. Weather & Pitch
19 °C, 12 km/h Mediterranean breeze, 60 % humidity. Bloomfield’s hybrid grass surface is rated 92 % by FIFA standards—expect a fast tempo.
7. Projected Line-ups
Maccabi Tel Aviv (4-3-3):
Tenenbaum – Arad, Hernandez, Lemkin, Menahem – Kanichowsky, van Overeem, Peretz – Zahavi, Davito, Yosef.
Hapoel Be’er Sheva (5-3-2):
Haimov – Dadon, Víctor, Víctor Sá, M. Levi, Taha – Kabha, Buzaglo, Stojinović – Yehezkel, A. Hemed.
8. Betting Market Nuggets
• Match odds: Maccabi 1.83 | Draw 3.40 | Be’er Sheva 4.60 (Bet365)
• Both teams to score “NO” has landed in 6 of Maccabi’s last 8 home league games.
• Under 2.5 goals is 2.05 – tempting given Keane’s cautious second-half management when leading.
9. Model Output
Five-thousand-run Monte Carlo simulation (Poisson xG blended) gives:
Maccabi win 49 %, Draw 27 %, BS win 24 %.
Most likely score: 2-0 (16.4 %), followed by 1-0 (14.8 %).
10. Final Prediction
Expect a tense first 30 minutes until Yeini’s absence is exploited by a diagonal ball to Yehezkel, but Maccabi’s set-piece machinery proves decisive. Zahavi to score off a corner rebound, Davito adds a late counter after BS push numbers.
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-0 Hapoel Be’er Sheva
Best Bets: Maccabi win to nil @ 2.90 (1 unit); Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05 (0.5 unit)
