The 2024-25 Eredivisie season kicks off with the league’s biggest question: can anyone stop Peter Bosz’s free-scoring PSV, or will a reinforced Ajax finally reclaim the throne? Below are data-driven predictions for every key storyline, top-four finishers, relegation candidates, and the golden-boot race.
1. Title Race
PSV are priced as narrow 2.10 favorites for good reason. Xavi Simons returns on another season-long loan, pairing with Guus Til and Johan Bakayoko in the league’s most electrifying front four. Despite selling Luuk de Jong to the Saudi Pro League, PSV’s expected goals (xG) model still projects 88–92 points, thanks to a midfield trio averaging 7.3 progressive passes per 90 in pre-season.
Ajax, now under newly appointed Francesco Farioli, invested €65 million in a spine overhaul: goalkeeper Diant Ramaj, center-back Jakov Medić, and box-to-box midfielder Davy Klaassen. Analytics outfit TwentyFirst Group calculates Ajax’s squad value at €485 million—€60 million higher than PSV—while their pre-season xGA dropped from 1.41 to 1.07 per match. Model simulations give Ajax a 38 % chance of finishing top, just three percentage points behind PSV.
Feyenoord lost key distributor Mats Wieffer to Brighton but reinvested immediately in Quinten Timber and borrowed goalkeeper Justin Bijlow’s deputy. Arne Slot’s pressing index remains elite (PPDA 9.2), yet depth issues could cost them in April; our algorithm assigns Feyenoord a 22 % title probability and a projected 81 points.
2. European-Spots Battle
Fourth place is a dogfight between Twente, AZ Alkmaar, and dark-horse Utrecht. Twente kept visionary coach Joseph Oosting, and with Ricky van Wolfswinkel supplying 0.71 non-penalty xG per 90, they edge AZ for the last Champions League qualifying slot. Utrecht’s loan signing of Mexican winger Rodrigo Huescas adds 1.2 successful dribbles per match, propelling them to a best-ever fifth.
3. Relegation Scrap
Excelsior’s squad market value (€18 m) is half the league median, while their xGA in 2023-24 was a woeful 2.11 per game. RKC Waalwijk and newly promoted Willem II join them in the drop zone, with Almere City surviving via the playoffs on goal difference.
4. Top Scorer Prediction
With de Jong gone, Vangelis Pavlidis (AZ) leads the golden-boot index at 0.78 xG per 90. Expect 24–26 goals. Ajax’s Brian Brobbey is second-favorite, closely followed by PSV’s Ricardo Pepi, forecast for 21 league goals.
5. Breakthrough Talents
Keep an eye on PSV’s Isaac Babadi (18), a left-footed No. 10 already compared to Donyell Malen, and Feyenoord’s 17-year-old wing-back Jaden Slory, who clocked a 34 km/h sprint in July friendlies.
Season Forecast Summary
Champions: PSV (42 %), Ajax (38 %), Feyenoord (22 %)
Top Four: PSV, Ajax, Feyenoord, Twente
Relegated: RKC, Excelsior, Willem II
Top Scorer: Pavlidis (AZ) – 25 goals
Biggest Shock: Utrecht to finish 5th and reach Europa League group stage
Fasten your seatbelts—Dutch football’s attacking roller coaster is ready to launch.
