Round 28 of the Greece Super League could be the tipping point in this season’s championship race. Leaders Olympiacos travel to the Olympic Stadium on Sunday to face arch-rivals Panathinaikos in the “Derby of the Eternal Enemies,” and our model gives the Piraeus giants a 48 % chance of taking all three points. A victory would stretch their cushion at the top to seven points with only six matches left, leaving PAOK and AEK—both on 56 points—needing snookers to stay alive.
Key numbers behind the forecast
– Olympiacos have won six straight league games, scoring 2.4 goals per 90 and allowing just 0.5 xGA in that span.
– Panathinaikos are unbeaten in five at home, but four of those were draws; their expected-goals difference in 2024 (+0.27 per match) ranks only fifth in the league.
– Head-to-head edge: since 2020, Olympiacos have taken 13 of a possible 18 derby points, including a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture where they generated 2.1 xG to Pana’s 0.8.
Tactical snapshot
Jose Luis Mendilibar’s 4-2-3-1 has morphed into a 4-3-3 in possession, with Kostas Fortounis drifting inside to create overloads. That movement pins opposing full-backs, allowing left-back Francisco Ortega to overlap and deliver the crosses that have produced four goals in the last four matches. Panathinaikos coach Ivan Jovanović will likely match the shape, but without injured anchor Rubén Pérez, 19-year-old tandem Sotiris Alexandropoulos and Manolis Siopis will have to shield a centre-back pairing that has lost three of its last four aerial duels inside the box.
Expected line-ups
Olympiacos: Paschalakis – Rodinei, Retsos, N. Ioannou, Ortega – Hezze, Carvalho, Fortounis – Podence, El-Arabi, Masouras.
Panathinaikos: Lodygin – Mladenović, Magnusson, Schenkeveld, Kotsiras – Alexandropoulos, Siopis – Palacios, Bernard, Sporar, Ioannidis.
Prediction engine output
– Olympicos win: 48 %
– Draw: 28 %
– Panathinaikos win: 24 %
– Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (16 % probability)
– Over 2.5 goals: 54 %
– Both teams to score: Yes 57 %
Betting angle
With Olympiacos’ price drifting to 2.30 (≈ +130) on the back of heavy public action on the draw, the value lies in the away win. A secondary play is El-Arabi to score anytime at 2.50; the Moroccan has seven goals in his last eight league appearances and averages 0.66 xG per 90 since the winter break.
Bottom line
Expect a ferocious atmosphere, but Olympiacos’ superior squad depth and current form should see them navigate the derby chaos and move within touching distance of a 48th league crown.
