The 2024/25 Ligue 1 season is already bubbling with intrigue, and the early data points to three story-lines that will dominate the campaign.
1. The three-horse title charge
PSG remain market leaders, but Luis Enrique’s squad refresh after Kylian Mbappé’s departure is still settling. Expected Goals (xG) models still rate them 0.25 per match above the next best side, yet their three-game rolling xGA has drifted from 0.87 to 1.19—evidence of a rearguard that can be hurt in transition. Marseille, under Marcelino, have the league’s deepest midfield rotation and have added Mason Greenwood’s 0.63 non-penalty xG per 90 from last term. Combine that with a mean average defensive line height that is three metres higher than 2023/24, and OM emerge as legitimate challengers at 3.75 title odds. Keep an eye on Nice: the Eaglets conceded the fewest big chances (28) after January 2024, and with Evann Guessand entering his third senior season they project to over-perform an 8% title probability priced at 11.0.
2. Mid-table chaos & the 40-point line
Lens lost two key ball-progressors in Fofana and Medina; our Monte Carlo sims therefore slide them to 46 points, just four above the relegation playoff spot. Monaco, meanwhile, are tipped for 62 points on the back of Breel Embolo’s return and a soft opening ten fixtures. The cluster between 40–52 points is forecast to contain up to nine sides, meaning Round 30–34 could see 4-point swings decide survival. Expect coaching changes—market history shows Ligue 1 clubs pull the trigger faster (average 12.8 match-days) than Europe’s other top-five leagues.
3. Relegation probabilities
Le Havre’s promoted rivals, Auxerre and Angers, arrive with superior squad continuity but lack top-flight depth; our model gives both a 38–41 % relegation chance. Clermont, priced evens for the drop, still rely heavily on non-league transfer recruitment and register 0.89 big-chances created per game—worst among incumbents. The trap door could therefore open for any two from Clermont, Lorient and the promoted pair, with goal-difference likely to separate them.
Player prop picks you can monetize
• Alexandre Lacazette to finish top French scorer at 6.5 (led the line for 27 non-penalty xG last season).
• Khéphren Thuram to notch 7+ assists at 4.2—Nice’s calendar opens with five of the first seven at the Allianz Riviera.
• Gianluigi Donnarumma to record 14+ clean sheets at 2.3; PSG’s early schedule features five opponents who finished 12th or lower.
Bottom line
Back PSG for a 12th banner if you want the safe lane, but the value sits with Marseille at >3.5 to dethrone them and with Nice each-way at double-digit odds. For relegation, dutch Clermont and Lorient in a double at 3.8; the numbers say one of them is almost certain to go down. Whatever side of the market you play, bank on Match-day 10 as the inflection point—by then the European co-efficient load and early suspensions will have exposed every squad’s soft tissue.
