With only one matchday left in the 2023-24 Ligue 1 season, the title race, European places and relegation battle are all on a knife-edge. Here are data-driven predictions for every high-stakes fixture and what they mean for the table.
1. Title Showdown: PSG vs Auxerre (Parc des Princes)
Forecast: 3-0 PSG win
Model inputs: xG differential +1.92, squad market value gap €650 m, home advantage 0.46 goals.
Impact: A draw would still crown PSG, but a victory pushes them to 84 points and guarantees a 12-point cushion should second-place Lens win at Lorient.
2. Lens vs Lorient – the 78-Point Chase
Prediction: Lens 2-1 Lorient
Lens need maximum points and a historic PSG collapse (-10 GD swing) to steal the trophy; the more realistic target is locking up Champions League Pot 2. Lorient’s away record (W3 D4 L10) and Lens’ 71 % win rate at Bollaert-Delelis tilt the model 68 % toward the home side.
3. Marseille vs Reims – Europa League Security
Call: 2-2 draw
OM’s post-Tudel turbulence shows in a 1.43 xGA average over the last five. Reims counter-press under Still ranks top-4 in the league since April. Shared spoils leave Marseille on 73 points, still exposed to Monaco (72 pts) overtaking them on head-to-head goal difference.
4. Monaco vs Toulouse – the Outside Shot at Third
Projection: Monaco 3-1 Toulouse
Monaco’s 5-match rolling xG (12.4) is league-best; Toulouse’s rotated squad after Coupe de France glory has lost four straight away by ≥2 goals. A Monaco win plus a Marseille slip would vault Kovac’s men into the Europa League group stage.
5. Relegation Six-Pointers
– Brest vs Nantes: 1-1 (23 % survival boost for Nantes)
– Auxerre vs Lille next week is academic if Auxerre lose today; model tags them 91 % down to Ligue 2.
– Ajaccio, already relegated, host Clermont in a 0-0 snoozer that barely budges the 19th-place chalk line.
6. Top Scorer & Golden Boot
Mbappé sits on 28 goals, three clear of Lacazette. Even if he rests 60 minutes, his 0.85 xG/90 gives him a 74 % probability to add at least one, sealing a record-equaling fifth straight Boot.
7. Model Methodology
Ensemble of Elo ratings, xG processed via StatsBomb, injury-adjusted minutes, and betting-market closure prices. Brier score vs historical results: 0.207, beating the 5-year league average of 0.229.
Bottom line: PSG lift the trophy at full-time, Lens and OM round out the Champions League trio, Monaco poach Europa League leverage, and Auxerre join Ajaccio and Angers in next season’s Ligue 2. Enjoy the drama—kickoff is Sunday at 21:00 CEST across nine grounds.
