Saturday 3 May 2025 serves up a blockbuster menu of decisive fixtures across Europe’s top leagues and a sprinkling of international friendlies. Below you’ll find data-driven predictions for the day’s headline matches, with expected line-ups, key stat nuggets and confidence ratings for each pick.
1. Premier League – Manchester City vs Arsenal, Etihad Stadium, 17:30 BST
Pick: Man City 2-1 Arsenal (75 % confidence)
Haaland has 27 league goals; Arsenal’s away xGA over the last five is 1.6 per game. Guardiola’s side averages 2.4 goals at home in 2025. A late Riyad Mahrez-style impact from Doku off the bench tilts it City’s way.
2. La Liga – Barcelona vs Atlético Madrid, Spotify Camp Nou, 20:00 CEST
Pick: 1-1 draw (65 % confidence)
Both teams need the points for Champions League seeding, yet each concedes under 0.9 xGA. Expect a chess match: João Félix to cancel out Griezmann’s opener from a set piece.
3. Serie A – Inter vs AC Milan, Giuseppe Meazza, 18:00 CEST
Pick: Inter 3-2 Milan (70 % confidence)
Derby fever in May usually spells goals. Inter’s Lautaro has scored in five straight derbies; Milan leaked two stoppage-time goals last week. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical value play at 1.91.
4. Bundesliga – Bayern vs Dortmund, Allianz Arena, 18:30 CEST
Pick: Bayern 4-1 Dortmund (80 % confidence)
Bayern’s 2025 home record reads: played 14, won 13, scored 43. Kane’s race for 40 league goals finishes here; Dortmund’s injury-hit back four has no answer to Musiala’s half-space runs.
5. Ligue 1 – PSG vs Lyon, Parc des Princes, 21:00 CEST
Pick: PSG 3-0 Lyon (78 % confidence)
With the title already wrapped up, Luis Enrique rests Mbappé? Don’t believe the noise—Kylian starts, nets twice, and overtakes Cavani’s all-time club mark. Lyon’s away form since February: one win in eight.
6. Championship play-off semi-final 1st leg – Leeds vs Norwich, Elland Road, 15:00 BST
Pick: Leeds 2-1 Norwich (68 % confidence)
Leeds finished third on goal difference; Summerville’s dribble success rate (46 %) is the best in the division. Expect high pressing and set-piece drama; Norwich’s road record drops off after 70 minutes.
7. Eredivisie – Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar, De Kuip, 16:45 CEST
Pick: 2-2 draw (60 % confidence)
Both sides average exactly 2.0 goals per game in 2025. A draw keeps the third-place Europa chase alive on the final day.
8. MLS – Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders, BMO Stadium, 19:30 PST
Pick: LAFC 3-1 Seattle (72 % confidence)
LAFC’s Olivier Giroud (13 goals in 12 MLS outings) faces a Sounders back line missing both centre-backs to international duty. Bouanga adds a third to rubber-stamp the win.
9. International friendly – Brazil vs Morocco, Estádio do Dragão, 19:45 WEST
Pick: Brazil 2-0 Morocco (75 % confidence)
Endrick gets his first senior start and opens the account inside 20 minutes. Morocco rest key starters ahead of June qualifiers; Brazil’s second-half press forces an own goal.
10. Accumulator of the day (10-fold, combined odds 34.0)
– Man City & BTTS @ 2.6
– Inter over 2.5 goals @ 1.7
– Bayern -1 handicap @ 1.8
– PSG to win to nil @ 2.0
– Leeds outright @ 1.5
– LAFC -1 handicap @ 1.9
Stake responsibly and shop lines across books before lock-in.
Banker double: Bayern win + PSG win (combined 1.53) – low-risk anchor for slips today.
Good luck and enjoy the games!
