The 2024-25 Eredivisie season enters its final straight with just five match-days left, and the data models at Opta, FiveThirtyEight and local analytics site StatsBombNL all converge on one headline: Ajax are 61 % likely to reclaim the shield, while PSV hold a 35 % chance of retaining it. AZ Alkmaar have broken clear of the chasing pack and own a 78 % probability of finishing third, sealing a Champions League qualifier berth.
Why the numbers tilt toward Amsterdam
1. Remaining strength of schedule
Ajax’s last five opponents average 1.28 points per game (ppg) this season, the league’s softest slate. PSV still travel to Utrecht (1.73 ppg) and host resurgent Twente (1.69 ppg).
2. Squad health
According to the club’s medical bulletins, Ajax will have Brian Brobbey, Dusan Tadic and goalkeeper Diant Ramaj at 90 % fitness or above for the run-in, while PSV must monitor Noa Lang (ankle) and Ibrahim Sangaré (thigh) on 75 % availability.
3. xG trends since the winter break
Ajax post 2.17 expected goals for per 90 and concede 0.91; PSV’s split is 1.98-0.99. The gap looks slim, but over 450 minutes that compounds to roughly +0.9 expected goal difference in Ajax’s favour.
The dark-horse storyline
AZ Alkmaar’s high press under Pascal Jansen forces the most high turnovers in the league (8.4 per game). If they win at Feyenoord on match-day 32, their third-place probability jumps to 91 %, virtually locking up another European season for the province club.
Relegation six-pointer
Sparta Rotterdam vs. Volendam on 8 May could decide the final automatic drop. ELO-style simulations give Sparta 38 % survival odds versus Volendam’s 31 %, with RKC Waalwijk (71 % safe) hoping both stay beneath them.
Golden-boot race
With 24 goals, Vangelis Pavlidis (AZ) leads PSV’s Luuk de Jong by two. The model projects both to finish on 28, but Pavlidis edges the award by virtue of fewer minutes played—unless Ajax successfully stifle him in their penultimate clash in Alkmaar.
Bottom-line forecast
Title: Ajax 61 %, PSV 35 %, outsider Feyenoord 4 %.
Top four: AZ Alkmaar firmly in third; Twente, Utrecht and Feyenoord scramble for the last Europa spot.
Relegation: Volendam and Emmen occupy the automatic slots; Heracles win the play-out.
