The 2023-24 League 1 campaign enters its last round on Saturday with automatic promotion, play-off seeding and relegation still undecided. Here are data-driven projections for every high-stakes clash.
1. Title Showdown – Portsmouth vs. Bolton
Portsmouth need one point at home to secure the championship. Expected-goals models give Pompey a 62 % win probability; Bolton’s away regression (W4 D4 L9 since February) tilts the balance further. Prediction: 2-1 Portsmouth, John Mousinho lifting the trophy.
2. Second Automatic Spot – Derby County @ Carlisle United
Derby trail Bolton by one point but face the bottom side. Carlisle have leaked at least twice in seven straight; Wayne Rooney’s side average 2.1 xG on the road. Forecast: 0-3 Derby, clinching promotion barring a five-goal swing.
3. Play-Off Seedings
Peterborough (3rd, 82 pts) travel to already-relegated Fleetwood. A draw guarantees third; odds are 71 %. Barnsley (4th, 81 pts) host mid-table Northampton; simulations show 64 % win chance, likely setting up a Posh-Tykes semi-final. Fifth-placed Oxford, buoyed by eight wins in nine, should edge 15th-place Exeter 2-1, securing home advantage in the quarters.
4. The Great Escape – Cambridge, Burton, Port Vale
Cambridge (20th, 50 pts, –18 GD) hold the safety line. Their fixture: promotion-chasing Barnsley—daunting yet Barnsley may rest starters. Survival line is 51 pts; a draw suffices 58 % of the time. Burton (19th, 51 pts) visit 12th-placed Blackpool, who have zero motivation; Brewers win 38 %, draw 31 %. Port Vale (21st, 49 pts) need victory at 18th-placed Leyton Orient and a Cambridge loss; Vale win probability 44 %. Most likely outcome: Cambridge draw, Burton draw, Vale win—Vale relegated on goals scored.
Relegation probabilities (10k Monte Carlo runs):
Cambridge 24 %, Burton 18 %, Port Vale 58 %.
4. Relegation Already Sealed
Fleetwood, Carlisle and Cheltenham will play League 2 next season; focus shifts to summer squad overhaul.
Golden Boot Race
Alfie May (Charlton) sits on 23 goals, one ahead of Bolton’s Dion Charles. May averages 0.71 non-pen xG/90 versus Charles’ 0.54. With Charlton hosting 14th-placed Wigan and Bolton away at Portsmouth, May remains 63 % likely to finish top scorer.
Model Methodology
Forecasts blend Elo ratings, 3-year xG trends, injury-adjusted minutes and travel fatigue. Betting lines within 0.05 goals are considered efficient; larger deltas flagged for value.
