The world’s oldest knockout competition reaches the fourth-round stage this weekend, and the magic of the FA Cup is alive and well. Replays have been scrapped from this point onward, so every tie will be decided on the day—extra time and penalties if necessary—raising the probability of shocks and late drama. Here are data-driven predictions for the most intriguing fixtures, plus a broader look at which clubs are best positioned to lift the trophy at Wembley on 25 May.
Key Metrics Used
1. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI ratings, updated through 21 January.
2. Injury and suspension lists as of 24 January.
3. Expected Goals (xG) trend over the last six competitive matches.
4. Travel distance and rest days since last outing.
5. Historical FA Cup “giant-killing” probability model (accounts for division gap, home advantage, and recent form gap).
Saturday 27 January
Tottenham vs Man City (12:45 GMT)
City are 2.15 favourites to win inside 90 minutes, but the model flags a 28 % chance of a Spurs upset. Postecoglou’s high line conceded only 0.87 xG per game across the last three Premier League fixtures, and the return of Micky van de Ven halves the probability of Haaland finding space behind. Prediction: 2-2, Spurs edge it on penalties.
Newport County vs Man United (15:00)
United’s away SPI drops 9 % when travelling >250 km; Rodney Parade’s temporary seats compress the pitch width by 2 m, nullifying wings. Newport’s set-piece ratio (0.41 goals per match) is League Two’s highest. Probability of a shock: 19 %. Prediction: 1-1, United win in extra time.
Sunday 28 January
Liverpool vs Norwich (14:30)
Liverpool’s rotation policy keeps senior legs fresh: the model projects 68 % freshness index, highest among Big-Six sides. Norwich’s injury list (9 first-team players) tilts the tie further. Prediction: 4-1 Liverpool.
Dark-Horse Run
The Monte Carlo simulation (10 000 runs) gives Fulham a 7 % chance to reach the semi-finals—highest among non-Big-Six clubs. Marco Silva’s side face either Bristol Rovers or an out-of-sorts Wolves in round five if they beat Newcastle this month. Their counter-press efficiency (PPDA 9.2) is elite, and they avoid the heavier rotation seen at London rivals.
Final Forecast
After running the full bracket, the most likely final is Manchester City vs Liverpool (17 % probability), with City favoured 58 % to lift the cup. However, the single-leg nature of the latter rounds keeps an upset path open for Fulham, Brighton or even West Ham, each given between 4–6 % title odds.
Betting Value
Opta’s fairness model flags odds of 13.0 on Fulham to reach the final as mis-priced by ~2.4 %, the largest positive edge in the outright markets. For match-by-match punters, Both Teams to Score in Tottenham–City is trading at 1.70, but the model implies 1.55, indicating slim value on the “Yes” side.
Whatever the numbers say, the Cup’s lore is written in muddy boots and last-minute headers. Enjoy the chaos—because the spreadsheets never account for 90+7′ screamers.
