The 2024–25 Egypt Premier League season kicks off on 18 October and promises the tightest title fight in years. Defending champions Al Ahly lost key loanees Percy Tau and Ahmed Kendouc to Europe, while perennial challengers Zamalek strengthened with the free-transfer captures of ex-West Ham winger Arthur Masuaku and Morocco striker Hamid Ahaddad. Pyramids FC, finalists in last year’s CAF Confederation Cup, kept coach Jaime Pacheco and broke their transfer record to land Ghanaian dynamo Kwadwo Opoku. Expect a three-horse race that goes to match-day 34.
Title prediction: 1) Zamalek, 2) Al Ahly, 3) Pyramids FC on goal difference. Zamalek’s deeper bench and new 3-4-3 system designed by Pacheco’s former assistant José Gomes tilt the balance in their favor; Ahly’s reload period costs them four early-season points.
Relegation watch: Modern Future’s sale of top-scorer Ahmed Ayman Mansour leaves them short of firepower; Pharco’s finances remain fragile after owner disputes; and newly promoted Aswan still rely on a U-23 core. Our model gives 62 % survival odds to Aswan thanks to coach Talaat Youssef’s second-season magic, but Pharco are 71 % likely to drop.
Golden Boot: Most bookmakers list Al Ahly’s winger Hussein El Shahat at 6.5, yet underlying expected-goals data favors Opoku (9.0) who averaged 0.73 xG per 90 in preseason. We project 19 goals for the Ghanaian, one clear of Zamalek’s Ahmed Sayed “Zizo”.
Dark horses: Keep an eye on National Bank. Their analytics-driven recruitment nabbed Senegal U-20 captain Papa Amadou Ndiaye, and the addition of set-piece coach Andreas Georgson lifted their dead-ball xG by 28 % in friendlies. A top-six finish at 4.2 odds is generous value.
Fantasy gem: Ismaily’s 18-year-old central midfielder Mohamed Abdel Aal costs only 4.5m and is on penalties; he created 2.3 chances per 90 in the U-21 league and has already started both African preliminaries.
Bottom line: Zamalek end a six-year drought, Pharco and Modern Future go down, and Opoku becomes the first foreigner since 2007 to top the scoring charts.
