The 2024 Copa Libertadores has reached the knockout stage, and analysts are narrowing the field to a handful of genuine contenders. Palmeiras remain the bookmakers’ favorite; Abel Ferreira’s squad is unbeaten in 12 continental matches, led by the tournament’s top scorer, Endrick, who has already netted seven times. Their depth—especially a midfield trio of Richard Ríos, Raphael Veiga, and 17-year-old prodigy Estêvão—allows rotation without a drop in intensity, a luxury no other Brazilian side enjoys.
Yet the path is treacherous. River Plate, now guided by Martín Demichelis, have rediscovered the vertical style that carried them to the 2018 title. In the round of 16 they dismantled Boca Juniors 4-1 on aggregate, with Facundo Colidio hitting form at the perfect moment. If veteran Enzo Pérez can manage three more high-tempo months, River could meet Palmeiras in a blockbuster semifinal.
Across the Andes, Marcelo Gallardo’s return to Fluminense has transformed the carioca club into a compact pressing machine. With veteran goalkeeper Fábio organizing a defense that has conceded only three goals since April, Flu are the dark-horse pick of many data models. A potential quarter-final clash against Atlético Nacional in Bogotá will test their altitude resilience, but André’s aerial dominance gives them a set-piece edge.
The analytics community is converging on a final four of Palmeiras, River, Fluminense, and surprise package Bolívar, who have leveraged La Paz’s 3,600-meter altitude for four home wins. Elo-based simulations give Palmeiras a 34 % chance of winning the trophy, River 22 %, Fluminense 18 %, and the field 26 %. The key inflection point comes in the semis: if Palmeiras avoid River until a single-match final on neutral ground, their youth-driven depth tilts the odds further in their favor.
Bottom line: expect another all-Brazilian decider, but keep an eye on Gallardo’s tactical tweaks and Bolívar’s thin-air wildcard. Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense in Asunción is the prediction that best balances form, health, and historic weight.
