After a pulsating round of 32, the Copa del Rey enters its decisive knockout phase where every touch of the ball feels like it could rewrite history. With four La Liga giants still in contention but facing tricky away fixtures, our data-driven model has simulated each remaining tie 50,000 times to produce these bold—and surprisingly close—predictions.
Barcelona (73 %) vs. Real Betis (27 %)
Xavi’s side travel to Seville with a slim one-goal cushion, yet the model rates their chances at nearly three-to-one. The key variable is Pedri’s fitness; if the midfielder starts, Barça’s odds jump to 78 %. Without him, Betis’s set-piece mastery reduces the gap to a coin-flip.
Real Madrid (60 %) vs. Valencia (40 %)
Carlo Ancelotti’s rotated lineup scraped a 2-1 win at Mestalla, but the return leg at the Bernabéu is a different beast. Valencia’s high press troubled Madrid early in the first leg, and if Hugo Duro keeps finding space between the holders, the upset probability rises to 42 %. Expect late drama: 55 % of simulations see a goal after 75’.
Athletic Bilbao (55 %) vs. Osasuna (45 %)
The Basque derby is the tightest matchup. Athletic’s aerial supremacy (3rd in La Liga for headed goals) meets Osasuna’s league-best headed-clear percentage. Home advantage tilts the scales, but only slightly; one red card flips the tie.
Sevilla (52 %) vs. Real Sociedad (48 %)
A clash of styles: Sevilla’s 3-5-2 wing-back overloads versus La Real’s positional chess. The market views this as 50-50, yet Sevilla’s Europa League DNA in knockout ties edges them ahead, especially if Rakitić dictates tempo above 75 passes per 90.
Dark Horse Alert: UD Almería
The only Segunda side left, Almería have a 38 % chance of toppling Atlético Madrid at the Ceramica. Their pressing intensity (PPDA 7.2) could exploit Atlético’s build-up issues without Giménez. Simeone
