With snow swirling above Paycor Stadium and playoff stakes at their peak, all analytical lenses zoom in on Sunday’s season finale for the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite a mid-season quarterback scare, Joe Burrow has re-assembled the franchise’s high-octane attack, pushing the Bengals into a winner-take-all duel with Baltimore for the AFC North crown. Early betting lines opened with Cincinnati as a razor-thin 1.5-point favorite, but sharper models that weigh weighted DVOA, late-season health indices, and outdoor December splits now project the Bengals by 3.7 points, implying a 62 % win probability.
Offensively, Burrow’s chemistry with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is peaking; since Week 12 the trio averages 9.1 net yards per pass attempt against zone coverage, third-best in the NFL. The re-emergence of deep-halved play-action—sparked by improved pass-pro from rookie right tackle Amarius Mims—gives Cincy the vertical punch it lacked during last year’s injury-riddled campaign. Combine that with Joe Mixon’s revived inside-zone rushing (5.2 yards per carry when facing six-man boxes) and the offense projects to 27-30 points against a Ravens secondary allowing 7.6 YPA over its last four road games.
Defensively, Lou Anarumo’s unit remains the great stabilizer. The Bengals surrender only 18.4 points per game since Week 9, fueled by a league-best 33 % third-down conversion rate allowed. Trey Hendrickson’s 14.5 sacks bookend a line that generates pressure 38 % of the time without blitzing, freeing safety spots to bracket Baltimore’s intermediate crossers. If Baltimore’s Tyler Huntley (or a limited Lamar Jackson) is forced to win from the pocket on 3rd-and-long, Cincinnati’s coverage mismatch becomes decisive.
Special teams tilt matters, too. Punter Ryan Rehkow’s hang-time hierarchy has pinned opponents inside the 15-yard line 17 times this year, quietly tilting field-position battles by +5.3 yards per drive in the Bengals’ favor. In a game forecast for 26-mph wind gusts, hidden yardage could morph into a 3-to-4-point swing—equivalent to another Burrow scoring drive.
Intangibles also lean stripes. The Bengals have won five straight at home in January under Zac Taylor, and roster continuity from consecutive AFC title runs breeds situational composure. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 4-4 in outdoor Week 18 fixtures, surrendering an average of 26 points when resting a dinged quarterback—precisely the scenario oddsmakers foresee if Jackson’s ankle remains questionable.
Bottom-line analytics from 50,000-season Monte Carlo simulations give Cincinnati a 61 % chance to cover the current 3-point spread and a 38 % probability of a double-digit win. Expect an aerial chess match that breaks open late when Burrow exploits Baltimore’s man-blitz on 3rd-and-medium, catalyzing a 31-23 Bengals victory. If the projection holds, the Queen City will celebrate its first division crown since 2021 and a critical playoff seed inside the AFC’s razor-thin Super Bowl chase.
