The 2024 Chinese Super League season is shaping up to be one of the tightest in recent memory. After Shanghai Port’s wire-to-wire title run in 2023, every contender has spent the winter loading up in the transfer market and reshuffling the technical staff. Below is a data-driven look at how the table could finish, key players who will swing the race, and the tactical trends that are likely to decide matches week-to-week.
1. Title Favorites
Shanghai Port kept coach Kevin Muscat and resisted big-money foreign signings, instead injecting fresh legs from their satellite academy in Madrid. With Oscar still pulling strings and a fitter Wu Lei roaming inside the box, the champions top the league’s expected goals (xG) chart after five match-days. Their depth—four starting-caliber fullbacks and two natural No. 9s—makes them the safest bet to finish in the top two.
Shandong Taishan remain the closest challengers. New Croatian centre-back Josip Elez shores up a back line that conceded 0.92 xG per 90 last year, second-stingiest behind Port. More importantly, Cui Kangxi has finally committed to a 3-4-2-1 that turns Moises and Fellaini into dual free eights, reducing the load on 37-year-old Marouane’s knees while still junking in set-piece goals.
2. The Big Spenders
Beijing Guoan’s new owners splashed €18 million on Bordeaux winger Dilane Bakwa and Fluminense midfielder André, instantly giving the capital side the league’s most valuable attacking trio (market value €52 m). The caveat is age: Bakwa turns 32 in September, and André has logged 4,200 minutes in Brazil over the last 12 months. Our model docks 1.2 points per season for every additional 500 minutes logged the prior campaign, pushing Guoan’s median projection down to fourth place.
Chengdu Rongcheng quietly built a Bundesliga-grade spine—centre-back Timo Letschert from Utrecht and box-to-box engine Elvis Rexhbecaj from Wolfsburg. Paired with local revelation Muqeddes Abdurusul up front, Chengdu’s gegenpress ranked second in ball recoveries inside the final third (69 through eight rounds). Playing in the humid Sichuan basin also raises their home edge by 0.21 goals per match, the steepest in the league.
3. Relegation Candidates
Shenzhen Pengcheng’s two-window transfer ban cost them six points off the bat, and the squad’s average age of 30.4 is the league’s oldest. Our Monte Carlo simulation sends them down in 84 % of scenarios. Meizhou Hakka and Nantong Zhiyun hover just above; both relied on loans from top-tier clubs last year, and those pipelines are drying up under tighter salary-cap enforcement.
4. Tactical Trend to Watch
Once a synonym for 4-2-3-1 drudgery, the CSL is experimenting with asymmetrical back threes. Coaches are stationing inverted fullbacks next to a single pivot, freeing wing-backs to pin the opponent’s last line without sacrificing central control. Watch for how many times Tianjin Jinmen Tiger’s right wing-back Su Yuanjie ends up as the de-facto second striker—an alignment that produced seven of the team’s 13 goals in April.
5. Predicted Final Table
1 Shanghai Port – 70 pts
2 Shandong Taishan – 68 pts
3 Chengdu Rongcheng – 63 pts
4 Beijing Guoan – 59 pts
5 Shanghai Shenhua – 56 pts
…
14 Meizhou Hakka – 30 pts
15 Nantong Zhiyun – 27 pts
16 Shenzhen Pengcheng – 17 pts
Bottom line: unless injuries derail Oscar or Wu Lei, Shanghai Port have the tactical glue and bench strength to repeat. The real drama will be the scrap for second, where Chengdu’s gegenpress could upset the traditional giants and secure a historic AFC Champions League berth.
