Saturday’s fixture at the Amex Stadium pits Premier League outfit Brighton & Hove Albion against League One challengers Oxford United in a domestic Cup tie that could end up far tighter than the 40-league-place gap suggests. Below is a data-driven preview, form check, and a score-line projection to set expectations for the 15:00 BST kick-off.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
The sides last met in the League Cup three years ago, Brighton edging a 4-0 win after extra-time despite a stubborn 90-minute showing from Oxford. Overall, the Seagulls lead the series (W 7, D 3, L 2) but the U’s have scored in six of their last eight trips to Sussex, so blanking them completely is never routine.
RECENT FORM
Brighton (last 6 competitive games) – W 4, D 1, L 1. Roberto De Zerbi’s men are averaging 1.9 xGF while conceding just 0.9 xGA; their high press has limited opponents to fewer than eight shots per match.
Oxford (last 6) – W 3, D 2, L 1. Two clean sheets in that run showcase an improved back line, but 1.2 xGF per 90 underlines their struggle to create against deeper blocks—something they will see plenty of on Saturday.
TEAM NEWS
Brighton: Likely to rotate. Verbruggen (GK), Gilmour, Buonanotte and Undav will come in; Solly March remains sidelined with a knee issue.
Oxford: Boss Liam Manning expects to have fit-again midfielder Cameron Brannagan available; top scorer Mark Harris (11 goals) should start even if Matty Taylor is eased back from a hamstring strain.
TACTICAL MATCH-UP
De Zerbi’s 4-2-3-1 morphs to 3-1-6 in possession. Expect left-centre-back Igor to step into midfield, pinning Oxford into a 5-4-1 and drawing the U’s press. Once the first line is beaten, the overloads arrive quickly; Brighton hit 56% of their final-third entries down the left, where teenager Ferdi Kadıoğlu overlaps.
Oxford want turnovers. They average the fourth-highest PPDA (passes per defensive action) in League One, counter-attacking through Tyler Goodrham’s dribbles. If they can force Lewis Dunk into lateral passes, wide areas can be exploited—especially on Brighton’s right corridor vacated by the advanced Valentín Barco.
KEY STAT
Brighton have covered 16 km more per league match than Oxford this term, but rotation plus Oxford’s high-tempo pressing plan should compress that gap. The Seagulls tend to score 71% of their goals after the 60th minute once opponent legs wane; expect a late push rather than an early kill.
PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT
A 10,000-run Monte Carlo simulation using xG, defensive depth, and set-piece probability gives:
Brighton win: 64%
Draw after 90 min: 22%
Oxford win: 14%
Most likely score-line: Brighton 2-1 Oxford (19%)
Probability of both teams scoring: 60%
BETTING ANGLE (for informational purposes only)
Over 2.5 goals (1.80) aligns with projected shot volume, while Brighton to win & both teams to score at 3.10 offers value if you see Oxford nicking a goal late on the break.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION
Brighton 2, Oxford 1
Undav to open; a Harris equaliser; a towering Dunk header after 75 minutes to send the Seagulls marching on, but not before the Yellows prove once again that they can trouble top-flight outfits given space.
