Brentford welcome Everton to the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday in a meeting of two sides desperate to avoid being dragged into the Premier League’s bottom-half dogfight. With both teams entering match-day 34 on 32 points, a single swing could lift either up to 13th or plunge them toward the relegation zone, so expect a cagey, tactical affair rather than a goal-fest.
Brentford’s form has been Jekyll-and-Hyde at home: five wins from their last eight in TW8, but clean sheets remain elusive—only two in that span. Ivan Toney’s return has sharpened their set-piece threat, yet the Bees still concede the majority of their chances down the flanks, an area Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Neal Maupay (if selected) will target on second-ball situations.
Everton, meanwhile, arrive having lost just once in their last five away fixtures under Sean Dyche. The Toffees’ 4-5-1 low block has limited opponents to 0.95 expected goals per game on the road since February, but their own output remains modest: only West Ham and Sheffield United have scored fewer away goals in 2024.
Key match-ups will decide the outcome. Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo against Everton’s aging full-back pairing of Ashley Young can open space for cut-backs, while Amadou Onana’s aerial presence may neutralize the hosts’ long-throw routine. In midfield, Christian Nørgaard’s ability to pick passes under pressure will be tested by Idrissa Gueye’s harrying and James Garner’s late third-man runs.
Neither manager is likely to gamble early; Dyche would happily take a point to keep the gap above the drop at four, and Thomas Frank knows a counter-attack error could undo a month’s hard work. With both sides averaging under 2.2 total goals in their respective home/away fixtures since the restart, the value lies in a low-scoring stalemate.
Palpite (prediction): Brentford 1-1 Everton – Under 2.5 goals, both teams to score: NO (lean).
