The 2024 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B has reached its halfway mark, and the promotion race is tightening while relegation worries intensify. Here are data-driven predictions for how the table could finish in November.
TITLE CONTENDERS
1. Santos FC – Despite their 2023 relegation, the Alvinegro Praiano boast the division’s strongest squad (market value €65 m) and an xG differential of +0.73 per match. Expect automatic promotion unless injuries strike.
2. Sport Recife – Under coach César Lucena, Leão da Ilha has the best away record (2.1 PPG) and a miserly defense (0.8 GA/90). Model simulations give them a 62 % chance of top-four finish.
3. América-MG – Relegated alongside Santos, Coelho still field eight starters with top-flight minutes. A favorable run-in (four of last six at home) projects 64-68 points, enough for the second spot.
DARK-HORSE PLAYOFFS
Chapecoense’s high press (PPDA 5.9) is forcing errors, while Goiás’ set-piece prowess (10 goals, 30 % of total) can steal points in knockout games. Both clubs are tipped for the play-off bracket, edging out traditional names such as Criciúma and CRB.
RELEGATION WATCH
At the bottom, Amazonas’ thin squad depth (only 18 players with Série B experience) and an aging defense (avg. 30.1 years) forecast 38-42 points—inside the drop zone. Similarly, Brusque’s road form (0.7 PPG) and the league’s lowest conversion rate (9 %) leave them vulnerable. Models assign >70 % survival probability to Ponte Preta and Ituano thanks to incoming loan signings and favorable schedule density.
KEY STRETCH
Rounds 32-35 (late October) feature six-pointer match-ups: Santos vs. Sport, América vs. Vila Nova. Those games will swing playoff odds by up to 18 percentage points, according to Elo-based projections.
BOTTOM LINE
Expect Santos and América-MG to go up automatically, Sport and Chapecoense to claim play-off berths, and Amazonas, Brusque, Paysandu and Mirassol to fight the drop. With Série B’s historic volatility, however, a single red card or managerial change could still flip any of these Brazil Serie B predictions before the final whistle on 25 November.
