The 2024 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A is shaping up to be one of the most open title races in years. Palmeiras enter as defending champions, but with Abel Ferreira’s side juggling Copa Libertadores commitments and key departures like Gustavo Scarpa, their aura of invincibility has thinned. Flamengo, under new coach Tite, have reloaded with a younger spine—17-year-old striker Matheus Gonçalves could be the breakout star—while Atlético-MG’s return of Hulk on a pay-as-you-play deal keeps them lethal on set pieces. Expect Palmeiras, Flamengo and Atlético to form the top-three tier, separated by fewer than six points come December.
São Paulo’s quiet revolution should not be ignored. After finishing 11th last year, the arrival of goal-poacher Lucas Moura and the maturation of defensive midfielder Pablo Maia give them the league’s best expected-goal differential since March. Internacional, bolstered by the loan return of striker Alexandre Pato, will also press for Libertadores spots, but defensive transitions remain a worry against high-press sides like Botafogo, who themselves could implode if coach Bruno Lage’s possession-heavy style doesn’t adapt to South American heat and travel.
At the bottom, newly promoted sides Criciúma and Juventude look short on top-flight depth, while Santos’ financial crisis finally catches up with them after decades of selling academy jewels. Our model gives Santos a 42 % chance of relegation—their lowest finish since 1978. Athletico-PR and Goiás hover just above the drop zone, but mid-season coaching changes could flip their fortunes.
Bold calls: Palmeiras to edge Flamengo on the final day, Botafogo to finish sixth despite a March slump, and teenage prodigy Endrick to score 13 league goals before his Real Madrid move. Whatever unfolds, expect fireworks, VAR drama and the samba swing that only Brazilian football can deliver.
